February 12, 2023

February 12, 2023

Massive rallies pointers of Tinubu victory in North West – Lukman

APC North west, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

All Progressives Congress (APC) National Vice- Chairman, Dr Salihu Lukman, has said that the successes recorded at the North-West rallies are pointers to the victory of Bola Tinubu, its presidential candidate.

Lukman, the immediate past Director-General of the Progressive Governors Forum (PGF), said this in a statement on Sunday in Abuja while appreciating the party’s members and supporters in the zone.

“Kebbi APC presidential rally on Saturday, Feb. 11, 2023, concluded this phase of the party’s presidential campaign rallies in all the seven states of the North-West.

“We want to thank all our people in the North-West for coming out in all our rallies in all the seven states to demonstrate support for our presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu,” he said.

He noted that members of the party in the states visited in the zone, came out to demonstrate mass support for it and all its candidates.

Lukman thanked the party’s members and re-affirmed its commitment and that of its leaders to its candidates to continue to provide honest, sincere and responsive leadership.

“In particular, we want to thank and congratulate all our party leadership at all levels in the North-West Zone for the hard work and for maintaining a united front throughout this phase of the campaign.

“We want to also commend and appreciate all our party members and supporters for coming out in mass to all campaign rallies.

“Similarly, we congratulate all our candidates for their ability to lead the mobilisation of party members, supporters and other citizens ahead of the 2023 elections,” he said.

Lukman added that part of what must be acknowledged was the fact that across the seven states in the North-West, APC leaders and candidates had been able to reconcile with all party leaders and members.

He said they had accordingly resolved all the challenges arising from internal party contests leading to emergence of candidates for the 2023 general elections.

Lukman said that the ability of the party’s leaders to reconcile and forge a united front in the North-West Zone was largely responsible for all the successful rallies in all the seven states.

He acknowledged the successful campaign rallies and activities of the party’s candidates across the seven states.

This, he said, was responsible for the increasing level of confidence of citizens in the party and its candidates and the large defection of political leaders from other opposition parties to the APC.

Lukman added that the defectors included the Jigawa governorship candidate of Labour Party and serving commissioners in Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) government of Sokoto State.

“All these are signs of victory for the APC in the North-West for our presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, in the presidential election of Feb. 25, and all our candidates for National Assembly.

“It also signposts victory in the governorship and State Assembly elections in all the seven states of North-West.

“We are very confident that with Allah’s blessing, all the seven states of the North-West, including Sokoto State, will be APC states as from May 29, 2023.

“As we move to election day, Feb. 25, 2023, we are confident that our leaders in all the seven states of North-West will give all necessary guide to party members, candidates, and all party supporters.

“We call on all members of the APC Presidential Campaign Council (PCC) from the zone to join all our party leaders at state levels to ensure effective mobilisation of voters on election day,” he said.

He reminded party members that in the end, election victory would be at the polling unit.

He expressed optimism that the APC North-West presidential rally had affirmed that North-West was APC and APC was North-West.

“We must remind Nigerians that the political history of Nigeria has shown that every presidential candidate that wins the votes of North-West wins the Presidency.

“In sha Allah, APC Presidential Candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, will win the Feb. 25, 2023, presidential election in North-West and will be returned eventually as president-elect of the Federal Republic of Nigeria,” he said.

February 12, 2023

Tinubu suggests 6-point relief plan to cash-strapped Nigerians: Statement

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, cashless policy, Naira swap

The APC presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has suggested a six-point measure that the monetary authorities could use to bring relief to Nigerians, facing hard times over new Naira notes scarcity.

In a statement titled, Let Us make the best of this moment, released Sunday and signed by him, Tinubu urged the CBN to implement the recommendation of the Council of States which asked the CBN to print more new notes and also allow the old notes to remain as legal tender.

Following from this, he asked the CBN to announce that the old and new Naira notes (especially the non-withdrawn notes and coins) will co-exist as legal tender for the next 12 months to follow examples of countries that have successfully implemented similar monetary policy.

“This will immediately remove growing tension in the country, eliminate panic reactions by the populace and allow time to scale up infrastructural gaps around alternative payment options to cash”.

Tinubu also advised the CBN to suspend immediately associated charges on online transactions and bank transfers and payments via POS until the current crisis is fully resolved.

“This cost should be considered a roll-out expense by the CBN to incentivise the envisaged shift to alternative transaction channels; for both the financial services consuming public and those in charge of implementing the scale-up programme”.

The APC candidate, in the statement debunked the notion being peddled by the opposition that he was against the Naira redesign and cashless policy.

He said he was only concerned about its disruptive implementation and the hardship it has brought on the generality of our people.

Those Nigerians “currently can’t access their hard-earned money to meet obligations”. This situation, he said has the attendant consequences on the informal sector, where majority operate.

The statement expressed empathy for the suffering Nigerians, the market women and men, the artisans and the SMEs and also acknowledged the progress being made in the supply of fuel round the country.

Tinubu urged Nigerians to endure the hardship and see it as a passing phase.

“Despite the challenges and current difficulties, we are a country of resilient, bold and courageous people who don’t succumb to hard times. We have always overcome our most difficult times and come out better as a people and a nation. This time will not be different. We will make lemonade out of our current lemons”, he said.

Please read the full statement:

PRESS STATEMENT

LET US MAKE THE BEST OF THIS MOMENT

The past few weeks have been a challenging one for Nigerians especially our SMEs, poor and vulnerable masses and those whose very survival depend on daily cash transactions. They have felt the brunt of the combined problems of scarcity of fuel and new Naira notes.

We feel the pains of our market women and artisans who have experienced low sales because customers do not have cash to make purchases. We hear the loud cries of farmers in rural areas and hinterlands who have been forced to sell their produce at much lower prices so they don’t lose out completely. We hear every Nigerian dealing with the consequences of the roll-out of the cash swap programme.

While the scarcity arising from the supply limitations of the new naira notes is still with us, we are encouraged about reports that the fuel queues across the country are easing out as a result of better supply to fuel stations. We are now confronted with how to bring quick, sustainable solution, and relief to Nigerians on the challenges still posed by the non availability of new Naira notes, so that social and economic activities can move on unimpeded and normalcy can immediately return to our financial services sector and overall productivity of our nation.

In seeking a quick resolution, the National Council of State met on Friday, February 10, 2022 and advised the government and Central Bank in particular, to push more new Naira notes into circulation and also allow for the old notes to remain a legal tender by ensuring supply gaps relative to infrastructural limitations are bridged by recirculating it to ameliorate the pains caused by the scarcity of new ones. We agree with the wisdom of the Council of States as a necessary starting point to begin redressing the unintended consequences of what would have otherwise been a good policy that required mainstream adoption. For the records, I and my running mate, Senator Kashim Shettima and our campaign council do not have anything against the CBN Naira redesign and cashless policy in principle. We are,however, only concerned about its disruptive implementation and the hardship it has brought on the generality of our people who currently can’t access their hard-earned money to meet obligations and the attendant consequences on the informal sector, where majority operate.

Despite the challenges and current difficulties, we are a country of resilient, bold and courageous people who don’t succumb to hard times. We have always overcome our most difficult times and come out better as a people and a nation. This time will not be different. We will make lemonade out of our current lemons.

To bring immediate relief to our people, we urge the Central Bank to consider the following:

1. Following the advice of the Council of States, the CBN should announce that the old and new Naira notes (especially the non-withdrawn notes and coins) will co-exist as legal tender for the next 12 months to follow examples of countries that have successfully implemented similar monetary policy. This will immediately remove growing tension in the country, eliminate panic reactions by the populace and allow time to scale up infrastructural gaps around alternative payment options to cash.

2. We advise the immediate suspension of associated charges on online transactions and bank transfers and payments via POS until the current crisis is fully resolved. This cost should be considered a roll-out expense by the CBN to incentivise the envisaged shift to alternative transaction channels; for both the financial services consuming public and those in charge of implementing the scale-up programme.

3. Mobilise all Money Deposit Banks, Payment platforms to show clear commitment and timelines on expanding their infrastructure and support services.

4. Bring in Fintech companies with capabilities into currency swap programme for the next 90 days to help decongest banking halls and ATM points where people line up for hours.

5. The Central Bank and other relevant MDA’s should form an Inter-Agency Action Committee for immediate oversight over the cash supply gaps from the Nigerian Security and Minting Company and deal with issues around capabilities and turn around time to meet the needs of the informal sector and unbanked people.

6. The CBN, National Orientation Agency and Ministry of Information, State and Local Governments with their relevant organs in both the public and private sectors should commence a major public enlightenment and sensitisation campaign to further educate and empower our people on the new naira and cashless policy for better understanding and mainstream adoption.

As leaders, our commitment to our country everyday must be on how to make life better for our people and we are called upon not to waste the opportunity the moment presents to us to ramp up capacity and capability to serve 200 million Nigerians, leaving no one behind and ultimately improve the living conditions of every single Nigerian. Our task now is to restore hope in the country by implementing these steps to energise our people that we can do big things for a better future and shared prosperity. We can build upon this citizen-focused policy challenge to offer a template on how governance should work for the people.

God bless you and God bless Nigeria. We are overcomers.

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu
All Progressives Congress Presidential Candidate
February 12, 2023

February 12, 2023

Who wins the 25 February Presidential election? The verdict

Who wins the 25 February Presidential election? An on-the-spot Survey

With the presidential election less than two weeks from now, The Nation’s team of correspondents and analysts take a look at the state of the race. Since the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) flagged of the campaigns in late September 2022, it has been dominated by ethnicity, religious sentiments, personal attacks and fake news on social media.

Many observers have described this as one of the dirtiest campaigns ever with not too much focus of the critical issues facing the populace – like the economy and insecurity.

Before the parties took a break for end of year festivities, the fundamentals of the race seemed to be locked in, with many people appearing to have made up their minds who they will vote for early. Indeed, some estimates say that percentage of the electorate who are undecided could be as low as five percent.

In the last few weeks, however, an x-factor was thrown into the mix with the seeming intractable fuel scarcity and the bungled naira swap which has plunged millions of people across the country into unprecedented hardship.

Suffice it to say that every season the air is thick with intrigues with schemers trying every trick in the book to either thwart the process, or prevent certain candidates from emerging winners. Back in 1993, the process was thrown into confusion by a dodgy judicial intervention at the last minute which the military authorities latched on to truncate the process. There has been plenty of evidence of the last few months how certain individuals and parties have clogged the courts with frivolous cases – many of which have been tossed out as lacking merit.

As Election Day draws ever closer, it remains to be seen whether those who have made up their minds about candidates to back, would make a U-turn on account of the aforementioned factors.

In this report, our team of editors and correspondents make projections on the likely outcome of the presidential election based on their reporting across the states of the federation.

This report was compiled by Deputy Editor, Emmanuel Oladesu; Managing Editor (Northern Operations), Yusuf Alli; Regional Manager (South-Souith), Shola O’neil; Nwanosike Onu (Awka); Mike Odiegwu (Port Harcourt); Kolade Adeyemi (Jos); Fanen Ihyongo (Kano); David Adenuga (Bauchi); Uja Emmanuel (Makurdi); AbdulGafar Alabelewe (Kaduna); Sola Shittu (Gombe); Justina Asishana (Minna); Joel Duku (Maiduguri); Linus Oota (Lafia); Augustine Okezie (Katsina); Onimisi Alao (Yola), Sanni Onogu ( FCT) and Adekunle Jimoh (Ilorin).

Others are: Assistant Editor, Dare Odufowokan, Toba Adedeji (Osogbo), Rasaq Ibrahim (Ado-Ekiti), Bisi Oladele (Ibadan), Osagie Otabor (Akure), Aiwerie Okungbowa (Asaba), Gil Nsa (Calabar) Ogo Anioke (Abakaliki), Damian Duruihuoma (Enugu), Chris Njoku (Owerri) and Sunny Nwankwo (Aba).

PLATEAU STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS:

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 549,615; APC: 429,140

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 548,665; APC: 468,555

One key issue that has always been at play in presidential elections is religion. Other factors in the other elections are minority politics, inclination to progressive politics and indigene-settler issues. In the state, All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) flag bearer, Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party (LP) candidate, Peter Obi, stand shoulder to shoulder. Former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is trailing behind the three candidates, judging by the calibre of notable politicians in the state backing the candidates.

Thus, the 2023 presidential election might be intriguing in the state. The popularity of these candidates and their parties make predictions of electoral victory difficult for analysts.

With the exception of Kwankwaso, the standard bearers of APC, PDP and LP launched their campaigns in the state between October and December 2022. For now, the NNPP and its flag bearer are relatively unknown in the state.

All notable politicians in the state have already pitched their tents with Tinubu, Atiku and Obi. For instance, the entire APC structures in the state are for Tinubu with Governor Simon Lalong as Director-General of the Tinubu/Shettima Presidential Campaign Council (PCC).

This implies that all Lalong’s cabinet members, the state legislature, 17 LGA chairmen, councillors, ward party chairmen, two senators and six House of Representatives members are all working for the success of the Tinubu/Shettima ticket.

That the entire state APC political structures are presumably for Tinubu does not deprive other candidates of support in the state. Atiku, for instance, has formidable forces working for him. Those with him include elder statesman Ambassador Yahaya Kwande, a former member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Suleiman Yahaya Kwande, a former Minister of State for Information and Culture, Alhaji Salisu Ibrahim Nakande, some former members of the House of Representatives like Hon. Timothy Golu, Hon. Johnbull Shekarau, the current House of Representatives member from Mangu/Bokkos Federal Constituency, Hon. Solomon Maren and the incumbent Senator representing Plateau North, Senator Istifanus Gyang.

Also working for the former Vice President is Senator Jeremiah Husseini and his team of supporters. Another strong pillar in his campaign is a philanthropist Chief Kefas Wungak, who is Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Kefiano Autous and Kefiano Global Foundation. From the way things are, it is safe to say that the Plateau PDP structure is for Atiku.

Comparatively, the standard-bearer of the Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi may not have robust structures like APC and PDP, but his support base in the state looks impressive. The governorship candidate of LP in Plateau State, Dr. Patrick Dakum and his running mate Edward Pwajok (SAN) are both grassroots politicians who have all it takes to woo youths to vote for LP. Besides Dakum, it was learnt that the major force behind Obi and Labour Party is former Governor Joshua Dariye.

There is also Jonah Jang, a former governor of the state who is in the Nyesom Wike camp that is opposed to Atiku.

Apart from Dariye’s impact, the minority factor will boost Obi’s chances in the state.

If previous voting pattern of the state in general elections is anything to go by, PDP has never lost any presidential election since 1999. Even in 2015 when APC won the governorship election, it lost the presidential poll to PDP. The same thing happened in 2019. But how it works out in 2023 is a different matter.

In summary, Tinubu, Atiku and Obi are in a serious battle for the soul of Plateau. The party that will garner the highest votes cannot be predicted. The three leading parties have almost equal chances of winning.

Tinubu may do well if APC concentrates on Jos North, part of Jos South, Wase, Kanam, part of Shendam, home town of Lalong who is also the senatorial candidate of the APC in the said elections.

What should also be borne in mind is that Obi and Atiku would compete for the same traditional support base, whereas the APC strongholds remain relatively intact. In 2015, many Christians were believed to have voted against Buhari. They backed then President Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian. In 2019, they shifted support to Atiku. Now, there is Obi, who is subtly waving the religious card. Will those who voted for Jonathan give Obi their votes?

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

BAUCHI STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,801,512

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 86,085; APC: 931,598

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 209,313; APC: 798,428

Both PDP and APC are popular in Bauchi but that cannot be said of the LP and NNPP. The first two parties control large parts of the state.

But APC has always enjoyed the goodwill of the people at presidential level. This was quite evident in 2015 when President Muhammadu Buhari defeated the then-PDP candidate, former Goodluck Jonathan by over one million votes.

Similarly, in the 2019 elections, Buhari defeated Atiku of PDP by a wide margin despite the ex-VP’s popularity in the Northeast. The PDP, however, went on to win the governorship election due to protest votes by some APC members against their candidate.

If the results of previous polls are anything to go by, APC stands a better chance. In 2015 Buhari defeated Jonathan by over a million vote margin in the state.

Similarly, in 2019, he polled 798,428 votes to beat Atiku who got 209,313 votes. Buhari won in 19 out of 20 local government areas of the state.

Atiku won in Bogoro, the local government area where former House of Representatives Speaker, Yakubu Dogara, comes from, getting 23,664 votes while Buhari got 5,284 votes.

The bigwigs expected to deliver Bauchi for APC are the Minister of Education, Mallam Adamu Adamu, who is leader of the party in the state. He hails from Katagum Local Government Area and his influence is unmatched.

Another key player is Sadique Abubakar, the party’s gubernatorial candidate and Presidential Campaign Council coordinator for the state who hails from Katagum.

Others mobilizing support for APC are a former governor of the state, Mallam Isa Yuguda, a former state chairman of the party, Uba Nana and a former National Commissioner at the Federal Character Commission (FCC), Yerima Giade. The rest are the APC state party chairman, Alhaji Babayo Misau, a former presidential aide Ya’u Darazo, a former Speaker of the Bauchi House of Assembly, Ayah Mi’a, Dr. Musa Babayo, and the current Comptroller-General of the Nigerian Customs Service. Col. Hameed Ibrahim Ali,

The disunity in the state chapter of PDP may affect Atiku’s chances at the presidential poll.

Analysts believe even in Bauchi South Senatorial District, which covers the local government areas of Alkaleri, Bauchi, Bogoro, Dass, Kirfi, Tafawa Balewa, and Toro, the party will face stiff opposition.

It’s believed that the incumbency factor, with PDP, the ruling party in the state enjoys, won’t play a major role this time around because Governor Mohammed who hails from Alkaleri LGA, may not throw his weight behind Atiku in the zone. He had lamented that certain forces within the PDP, including Atiku, were bent on frustrating his second-term ambition.

Atiku may have to rely on the influence of Dogara ; a former PDP national chairman, Alhaji Ahmadu Mu’azu, Kirfi, and Sen. Ahmed Abdul Ningi, to pull votes for him.

He will take advantage of Dogara’s stance on the APC’s same-faith presidential ticket. Unfortunately, the ex-Speaker only controls Bogoro local government, out of the seven local governments, including Tafawa Balewa, Dass in the district.

But even in his predominantly Christian community, there are grassroots supporters of Tinubu’s ticket.

The Bauchi Central Senatorial District covers the local government areas of Damban, Darazo, Ganjuwa, Misau, Ningi, and Warji. APC appears to be currently divided in the district following the defection of the senator representing the zone, Jika Dauda Halliru, who is now contesting for the governorship race under NNPP. It’s believed that PDP has an edge over APC in the district.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

BENUE STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,782,302

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 303,737; APC: 373,961

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 355,355; APC: 347,668

Benue State is likely to be a battleground for votes in the North-Central. It’s fight-to-the finish in the sense that the political actors, who have been on the scene for years are the same, but this time around in different political platforms. It is expected that they would do everything to outwit one another.

The PDP, which is the ruling party in the state, has nine House of Representatives members out of 11, three senators, 26 House of Assembly members out of 30, 23 Local Government Area chairmen – including elected councillors in the 276 wards in the state.

It also boasts of notable politicians who command large following at the state and council levels. Some of these heavyweights are Sen. Gabriel Suswam, who was the immediate governor, Sen. Patrick Abba Moro (a former Minister of Interior) and Sen. Oker Jev, who is from Benue North West Senatorial zone.

On paper, one can easily conclude that PDP will win the 2023 general election at all levels in the state.

However, the party is in a serious crisis. Things have fallen apart. The biggest threat to its existence before and after the 2023 general elections is the protracted crisis between the G-5 governors and the party’s national chairman, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu. Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom, is an active member of the rebellious group. Ortom was absent when the Atiku campaign train came to town.

However, the ex-VP and Ayu are not leaving anything to chance as they have also mobilized their own supporters for the elections.

The combination of Suswam, Moro and Jev is behind Atiku, but since the leader of PDP in the state is the governor, who obviously has the yams and knives, it is difficult to predict the outcome because the party is an opposition unto itself.

Suswam, has declared his support for Atiku openly, and his supporters are campaigning for the Turaki Adamawa. But he insists this has not affected his relationship with Ortom. Many don’t believe him; they argue he’s just buying time as the two would soon fall apart.

This is despite the continued assurance by Ortom that PDP will win all elections from bottom to top. Unless there is reconciliation, Atiku may not do as much as he did in 2019.

So far, Ortom has shown a soft spot for Obi. Atiku would have a huge chunk of what should ordinarily be his sliced off, with the LP candidate as beneficiary.

In spite of the spirited campaign against Buhari in 2019 due to rampant killing of farmers in the state by herdsmen, the APC and PDP ran neck – and – neck. With Ortom and his supporters determined to work against Atiku, APC’s Tinubu may have the upper hand, come February 25.

The party looks good to give the ruling PDP a run for its money in the state. Fr. Hycinth Alia, who is the governorship candidate, is the rave of the moment and is enjoying massive followership .With the enthusiastic backing for him in urban and rural areas, pundits have concluded that PDP is gone and APC is coming in the state.

Many claim Alia will win big because the PDP administration is owing teachers, pensioners and civil servants etc. Since Ortom is serving out his two terms, they argue the electorate should be allowed to choose a candidate and party to liberate the state from the harsh economic situation.

In this light, they view Tinubu and APC as best for the state. For Benue, the last ballot will decide.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

KADUNA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 4,345,469

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 484,085; APC: 1,127,760

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 649,612; APC: 993,445

In Kaduna State, the February 25 presidential election will be a great departure from the previous polls. The 2011 race was between the then incumbent President Jonathan of PDP, Buhari of Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and Nuhu Ribadu of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). In 2015, it was again between Jonathan and Buhari, while in 2019, it was a contest between Buhari and Atiku.

In the three previous elections, Buhari won in the state. He defeated Jonathan in 2011 with a total votes of 1,334,244, as against the incumbent President’s 1,190,179. But Buhari lost the election at the national level. In the return match in 2015, Buhari now under the platform of the APC won Kaduna with 1, 127,760 to defeat Jonathan who polled 484,085 votes.

As the incumbent in 2019, Buhari defeated Atiku after scoring 993,445 votes against his 649,612 votes. He took 15 of the state’s 23 local government areas, leaving his opponent with the remaining eight.

The factors that will make the big difference between the previous elections and the coming poll are the emergence and resurgence of the Kwankwaso-led NNPP, the Obi-led LP, and the exit of Buhari from the political scene.

This is a factor that may change the voting pattern in the forthcoming presidential poll. Though, he hails from Katsina, he has lived most of his life in Kaduna. He is not only loved, he is ‘worshipped’ by the people of the state. This explains the massive support he has enjoyed during the previous elections.

Meanwhile, Atiku who gave Buhari a good fight by securing 649,612 votes against his 993,445 in 2019, is still in the contest. He would be slugging it out with Tinubu, who is contesting the presidential race for the first time and actively backed by Buhari loyalists, among them the state governor, Mallam Nasir El- Rufai, who is immensely popular in Kaduna, the state capital and the Northern part of the state.

The youngest and smallest of the ‘big four’ parties in Kaduna State is Kwankwaso’s NNPP. The new party lacks strong structure. Its presence revolves around its leader and presidential candidate. The party in the state also appears to be all about its governorship candidate, Senator Suleiman Uthman Hunkuyi.

Although LP is gaining popularity in Southern Kaduna and part of the capital, it is not immune to structural crisis. It is factionalized. One wing is chaired by Peter Hassan but the party’s governorship candidate, Hon. Jonathan Asake aligns with Auwal Tafoki’s faction.

Both NNPP and Labour Party may be showing promise elsewhere, but the reality is that they both lack the capacity to win in Kaduna. Their existence is, however, capable of causing serious issues for the mega parties in the zones of the state where the big ones hitherto called the shots.

In Kaduna North and Kaduna Central Senatorial zones, NNPP will get some votes to deplete the figures of the ruling APC and the major opposition PDP. Kaduna South Senatorial Zone on the other hand, is the area of the state where LP has been able to make significant inroads. It is most likely going to get its major votes from this zone, which had since 1999 become the traditional stronghold of the PDP.

The PDP presidential candidate is going to enjoy the support of people like former Vice President Namadi Sambo, former governors Ahmed Markafi and Ramalan Yero.

There is no doubt that Atiku is popular in Kaduna. In 2019 he polled 649,612 votes against Buhari’s 993,445 votes. PDP will, however, record split votes in Southern Kaduna because of Labour Party.

The major weakness of Atiku in Kaduna Central is the crisis rocking the party over the senatorial primary. As at now, the question of who is the Kaduna Central PDP candidate is yet to be answered because of the legal battle between the two prominent contenders for the ticket.

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party has gained some momentum in Southern Kaduna and parts of the metropolis. He will record a good number of votes from this area to come distant third in the presidential poll.

The presidential candidate of NNPP has made considerable inroads in key Northwest states, especially in Kano where he hails from and the neighbouring Jigawa State. In Kaduna, he will have pockets of votes in Kaduna North and Kaduna Central but he won’t make any significant impact considering the fact that his governorship candidate who is the face of the party is not on ground.

Looking at the state of the political parties, the presidential candidates themselves, those rooting for them and the permutations on ground, a tight presidential race lies ahead between APC and PDP, with the ruling party’s Tinubu having an edge.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

GOMBE STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,394,393

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 96,873; APC: 361,245

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 138,484; APC: 403,961

In 2019, APC’s Buhari won the election in Gombe State after polling 403,961 votes out of 580,649 total votes cast in the state.

Until then, Gombe was a PDP stronghold under former Governor Hassan Dankwambo who had completed two terms in office. He succeeded his godfather, Senator Danjuma Goje, who also spent two terms as governor before leaving office in 2011.

However, the game changer for the 2019 election in Gombe was no one else but Goje, the senator representing Gombe Central at the National Assembly who decamped to APC and single-handedly toured the 114 wards with the APC candidate, now the governor of the state, Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya.

The 2019 election was a terrible defeat for PDP as Dankwambo could not even win his senatorial bid for Gombe North as an incumbent.

However, the question today is can the APC repeat the landslide victory it won in 2019 at the 2023 presidential election?

Unlike four years ago, the political landscape in the state today is a completely different ball game with three strong parties – APC, PDP and NNPP – and the less visible Labour Party, hustling for the over 1.5 million votes in the state.

In the ruling APC, Governor Yahaya is consolidating his hold on the state as the leader of the party. Lately, the party had battled with internal strife between him and his former boss and godfather Goje, but it was amicably resolved with the latter receiving his Gombe Central senatorial ticket for the fourth term in the Senate.

However, unlike 2019, Goje has not been actively involved in party activities in the state giving a semblance that all may still not be well between the governor and his estranged godfather.

Nevertheless, APC has remained strong as a party to beat in the state, cashing in on the crisis rocking the main opposition party PDP in the state.

The chief anchor for the APC presidential campaign in the state is Malam Abubakar Inuwa Kari who also doubles as Chief of Staff to Governor Yahaya. He is a known grassroots politician and a strong ally of Tinubu. He is the Director of Contact Mobilization for Tinubu/Shettima in the Northeast with Yahaya as the APC Presidential Campaign (PCC) Coordinator for the zone.

The PDP was, prior to the gubernatorial primary, a major threat to the ruling APC in the state. But after the primary election, things fell apart in the party with a leading gubernatorial aspirant, Jamilu Gwamna jettisoning the party to become the campaign coordinator for APC. Jamilu’s exit was a big blow to the party having just donated his campaign office to the PDP presidential candidate Atiku.

The PDP candidate, Jibrin Barde and the party leader in the state, former Governor Dankwambo are the anchor men for the PDP but neither of them is taken serious as far as the 2023 presidential election is concerned in Gombe. Both Dankwambo and Barde had been supporters of the PDP G-5 Governor’s before making a U-turn recently to throw their weight behind Atiku when he came for the presidential campaign in Gombe.

Indeed, the PDP in Gombe today is not enjoying the best of support. It does not demonstrate the strength and determination to win any election in the state. Though it was earlier in 2022 touted to be a possible replacement for the ruling APC, but that hope has been dashed by irreconcilable differences within the party.

NNPP is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the PDP crisis in Gombe. Towards the end of last year till the moment, it has suddenly become the new bride and a possible alternative to APC.

Led by Hon. Khamis Ahmed Mailantarki, it has been waxing stronger with defections to the party from both the APC and PDP. Mailantarki was a former and only CPC member of the House of Representatives representing Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye between 2011 and 2015. He made history in 2011 when he emerged as the only legislator from the North-East with the highest number of votes and was the deputy chairman of the House Committee on FCT.

Today in Gombe, Mailantarki is said to be secretly enjoying the support of the Presidency through his closeness to Buhari as the only CPC member of the Federal House of Representatives then.

There may not be a landslide victory for any of the four most visible political parties in Gombe in 2023 presidential election unlike what happened in 2019. Atiku will still enjoy the sympathy of some of the electorate as a Northeast leader, while Tinubu will benefit from the power of incumbency of APC and its structures statewide.

NNPP will shake the table, but the biggest surprise might come from LP which although has no gubernatorial candidate, nor visible anchorman, yet enjoys a good followership among Christians in the state. It is believed that if religion plays a role in the 2023 presidential election, then the party might put in a respectable performance in Gombe.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

BORNO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,514,228

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 25,640; APC: 473,543

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 71,788; APC: 836,496

From the First Republic to the Fourth Republic, Borno State has always been a progressive enclave. Its politics is as predictable as its valiant heroes of the old Kanem-Bornu Empire. It is rather of radical shape or of idealistic conservative slant. The outcome of presidential election in Borno has been consistent and reflective of the political leaning of the people of the state in the last 23 years.

In 2015, out of 515,008 registered voters, APC garnered 473, 543 compared to PDP’s 25,640. It was also a gallant outing for APC in 2019 when its candidate Buhari polled 836,496 votes to beat Atiku who scored 71,788 votes. The performance of PDP had been abysmal in the state.

With the Boko Haram “war” almost won by Buhari, the emergence of APC Vice Presidential candidate, Sen. Kashim Shettima from the state and the outstanding performance of Governor Babagana Zulum, a landslide is expected in February. The breeze of victory is already ravaging Borno mountains, hills and desert.

The last time the state was close to the presidency was on June 12, 1993 when, Ambassador Babagana Kingibe was the Vice Presidential candidate to the late business mogul, Chief M.K.O. Abiola.

In spite of some grumblings about the style of Governor Babagana Umara Zulum, many people believe that APC is still the party to beat in the state. The governor has reversed his high stake style to relate better with politicians after being challenged at various times by political stars in the state.

The appointment of the 27 caretaker chairmen recently inaugurated in the state was seen by observers as a wise move by the governor to persuade some of the state’s disgruntled politicians to join forces with him. The list of appointees included the faces of seasoned politicians from the state, which many people are familiar with.

Zulum has consistently said he has rebuilt more churches in the Southern part of the state that were destroyed by Boko Haram insurgents more than ever in the history of the state. This could be a strategy to also counter the perceived marginalization of the Christian population. He has also consistently spent his Christmas with the people since he was elected as governor in 2019.

His over 500 projects which he rolled out in the state in the last four years are also selling points for APC in the state and he has never shied away from drumming these into his people’s ears.

While the APC is banking on the power of incumbency, the NNPP is hoping to overthrow the APC through the philanthropy of its candidate Kwankwaso.

According to Sabiu Commander NASCO, the people of Borno State, particularly women, are waiting to repay Kwankwaso for the largest philanthropic intervention in the state’s history during the Boko Haram crisis.

According to him, the former Kano governor took over 500 children out of Maiduguri during the height of the Boko Haram crisis and provided them with scholarships from primary school to university level.

The PDP’s fortunes in Borno have plummeted since 2011, but you can only underestimate the party’s performance in the 2023 election at your peril, especially since Atiku is the party’s presidential candidate.

A factor that has raised the PDP’s hope in Borno State is the emergence of the young Jajari as the party’s gubernatorial candidate. His arrival has sparked some glimmer of renewed energy, particularly among the youths in the state’s Maiduguri Metropolitan Council (MMC) and Jere Local Government Area.

PDP supporters over time in the state have faced serial betrayals from party elders, who usually end up compromising with the ruling party. The arrival of Jajari from outside the circle has provided the party with new life.

Another factor contributing to the current PDP’s strength in Borno State is the widespread dissatisfaction caused by the state’s primary elections, in which the ruling party is alleged to have imposed candidates on the people.

Borno North is another critical factor that will benefit the ruling APC in the presidential election. This is because, with the exception of Kaga Local Government, which is located along the Damaturu/Maiduguri road, the majority of the votes will be cast from IDP camps.

This suggests that the areas with insecurity will be difficult for the opposition parties to penetrate, especially the IDPs camps.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

NIGER STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,698,344

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 149,222; APC: 657,678

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 218,052; APC: 612,371

In Niger State, there are no longer old strong local politicians in APC because the government of youths in the last eight years has further demystified the power blocs in the state. The emerging leaders in APC tend to favor and support the aspiration of Tinubu.

The former political warlords in the state have been relegated to the background thereby forcing them to queue behind the new leaders like Senator Sani Musa, APC National Vice Chairman (North Central), Mu’azu Bawa Rijau and Hon. Jonathan Vatsa whose voice and moves contributed to the success of the APC in the 2015 general elections. Despite his loss in the primaries, Senator Abdullahi Sabi, is strongly behind the party and has been mobilizing people from his zone.

In the PDP, the party seems to be in one camp now with the coming together of former governor, Dr. Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu group’s and chairman, Tanko Beji’s group. For now, there seems to be unity in the camp. This development may give strength the PDP presidential candidate in the state as the former governor has always been a strong ally of Atiku.

There is also Hon. Ibrahim Ebbo, the former DG of Special Duties to the Governor who defected to the PDP from the APC and Umar Nasko who has defected back to the PDP from APC. They are all rooting for PDP.

Other non-state actors are ‘Uphill Generals’ in the state. For now, nobody can categorically state where they belong. As much as their political influence seems to be nose-diving, candidates in all parties may have themselves to blame if they think they cannot influence decisions and voting strength in the state.

For now, Niger can be described as an APC state. It was controlled by PDP until 2015 when the Buhari tsunami took over the state. In 2019, the new ruling party was able to sustain the tempo to remain in power.

The state can still be referred to as leaning-APC though one cannot rule out the vital influence of the Kwankwasiyya group (NNPP) in view of the fact that he has these cult-like followers, especially in Niger north zone which is predominantly a Muslim area.

The most visible parties are APC and PDP with the NNPP following strongly behind.

For NNPP, the party depends on the political structure of its governorship candidate, Alhaji Ibrahim Mohammed Sorodeke, who pulled out from the APC after the primaries along with his followers.

For the Labour Party, its inability to have candidates for all the National Assembly positions is a major setback. Another factor that may affect it is the fact that the power zoning policy of the state does not favor where its governorship candidate, Hon. Joshua Bawa, comes from. However, one cannot rule out a good outing from the party in Minna, Suleja, and Kontagora – being cosmopolitan areas.

In the 2015 general elections, people voted massively for APC, and from all indications, the trend may remain the same because other parties have not shown seriousness in engaging in a massive campaigns. Also, they are yet to sell their plans to the people. For PDP, which should be a strong opposition, its followers only engage in trading insults. The party goes about its activities in a way that makes it look like a secret cult as no one knows its activities or what it is doing.

For now, APC and its candidates are likely to triumph as the case has been in the last two elections.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

NASARAWA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,899,244

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 273,460; APC: 236,838

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 289,903; APC: 283,847

As the people of Nasarawa State go to the polls on February 25th to elect a president and National Assembly members who would serve for the next four years, the major parties with substantial presence in the state are APC and PDP. NNPP and Labour Party have no base in Nasarawa State to cause any upset.

The election is actually a battle that is going to be fought in the 13 LGAs of the state with gladiators and political actors bringing every act in the arsenal to outsmart one another in arguably the most contentious election in the history of the country.

Nasarawa has since 1999, proved to be a stronghold of PDP until 2011 when CPC formed by Buhari was able to make incursion when its candidate Umaru Tanko Al-Makura defeated an incumbent PDP government led by the late Governor Aliyu Akwe Doma. Al-Makura of the CPC garnered 324,823 votes while Doma of PDP polled 320,938 votes to emerge as the lone CPC governor.

Buhari lost the state; PDP still maintained its lead in the presidential election. Al-Makura was the only governor who the CPC legacy party brought to the merger talks that birthed APC leading to the emergence of the incumbent in 2015.

All politics is local, it was totally surprising that ex-President Goodluck Jonathan defeeated Buhari (CPC) in the 2011 elections by polling 408, 997 votes as against Buhari’s 278,390 – given the underpinning ethno-religious sentiments and PDP’s erstwhile entrenchment in Nasarawa politics.

Even in 2015 elections won by Buhari as APC candidate, he still lost narrowly to Jonathan in Nasarawa by 236,839 votes against Jonathan’s 273,460.

But by 2019, Al-Makura as outgoing governor was able to mobilize to break the jinx, as PDP’s Atiku polled 283,847 votes while Buhari of the APC garnered 289,903 votes making it the first of its kind for APC to win the presidential election in the state.

However, when these dynamics are put into play, the APC and the PDP seem to have 50-50 chances at the 2023 presidential election based on past antecedents.

It is on records that PDP has had an edge during presidential election in Nasarawa State since 1999 as the state is yet to properly identify with the APC except in 2019. A lot of political heavyweights in Nasarawa are still lining behind PDP.

PDP parades two influential former deputy governors, Labaran Maku and John Mike Abdul, Senators Solomon Ewuga, Walid Jibrin, Suleiman Adokwe, Philip Gyunka among other political big wigs.

APC, led by the incumbent Governor Sule, equally has gladiators who actually decide the political direction of the state. They are the likes of Al-Makura, Abdullahi Adamu, the APC national chairman, as well as the current Minister of Environment, Hassan Mohammed and former Senator Abubakar Sodangi among others.

However, the party (APC) is sharply divided in the state due to the primaries the Abdullahi Adamu led APC national secretariat conducted in the state. Although Sule has done so much to ensure proper reconciliation, but majority of the key influential members of the APC are now in SDP like the current Senator representing Nasarawa North, Godiya Akwashiki and a former member of the House of Representatives Ahmed Wadada. The two leaders are senatorial candidates of the SDP.

Others in SDP include the Majority leader of the state House of Assembly, Tanko Tunga, state assembly member representing Nasarawa Eggon East, Mohammed Muluku, as well as two incumbent members of the House of Representatives representing Kokona/Keffi/ Karu Federal Constituency and Lafia/Obi Federal Constituency Jonathan Gaza and Dahiru Sarki. However, it is reliably gathered that all the SDP candidates in the state are supporting the re-election of Governor Abdullahi Sule and the APC presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The APC will have to put up a much stronger fight than they did four years ago if they are to retain their supremacy in the state. This is because the margin of victory in 2019 was less than 12,000 votes. And unlike in previous elections where the PDP was characterized by infighting, there seems to be a remarkable shift this time around as party leaders appear to have shelved their differences for the unity of the party.

Despite the sharp division among the ranks and file of the APC leaders in the state, Al-Makura is the leader of Nasarawa South Senatorial District comprises Lafia, Doma, Awe, Keana, and Obi LGAs. He is leaving no stone unturned to ensure he delivers his senatorial zone to APC presidential candidate.

In Nasarawa North Senatorial District, which seems to be the home of PDP, is actually where the current Governor Abdullahi Sule hails from. It comprises only three Local Government Areas, namely Nasarawa Eggon, Akwanga and Wamba. Though with much opposition, Sule is equally expected to deliver his senatorial district to the APC presidential candidate.

In Nasarawa West Senatorial District, the zone of the current APC national chairman, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, the current minister of Environment, Hassan Mohammed and speaker of the house of assembly, Balarabe Abdullahi who are both from the zone are expected to also deliver APC during the February 25th presidential election.

In 2019, a bulk of the APC votes came from Lafia, Keffi, Toto, Nasarawa, Awe and Keana LGAs. This was different from what obtained before.

Majority of the people in the northern part of the state where Sule hails from are expected to vote for Atiku and PDP. They did the same in 2019. The zone has been a stronghold of the opposition. The party’s governorship candidate, David Umbugadu and DG of the party’s presidential campaign council, Labaran Maku are equally from the zone. These leaders are Eggon by tribe which has the largest voting population in the zone.

Overall, Tinubu is expected to win in Nasarawa but all hands must be on deck.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

ADAMAWA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,196,566

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 251,664; APC: 374,701

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 410,266; APC: 378,078

The general picture of the February presidential election in Adamawa State shows two parties or presidential candidates in an almost equal race, one other not too far behind and a fourth one trailing a long way off.

As things stand right now, PDP which produced incumbent Governor Ahmadu Fintiri, remains the strongest party. It emerged from main opposition in 2019 to defeat APC form the present state government.

For the presidential election, famous son of the soil, Atiku, will test his might with his biggest rival Tinubu.

The ex-VP won his first major election in 1999 when, bearing the ticket of the same PDP, he become governor-elect of Adamawa State. He was waiting for inauguration when he was made the presidential running mate to ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo. He has not let go the scent of the Presidential Villa since 2007.

Now as candidate, his being an indigene of the state alone is expected to count greatly for him. Outside his personal fame, many prominent people are rooting for his presidency across the state.

Fintiri leads the pack. The governor who previously had a close relationship with his Rivers State counterpart, Nyesom Wike, quickly sacrificed that friendship to stand by Atiku when the intra-party tussle started.

The state PDP chairman, Tahir Ahmed, is similarly a known as a die-hard Atiku man who has been so unapologetic about it that, in the countdown to the presidential primary. He told most aspirants who visited the state that Atiku was the state PDP’s only consideration.

The APC in the state as a family is expectedly championing the cause of its presidential ticket, but the cohesion of the party is right now unsure.

The party’s governorship candidate for the state, Senator Aishatu Ahmed Binani is a highly popular person but her emergence caused an intra-party rift which manifested in a court process which ended in Binani first being removed as a candidate and then being restored. The party does not seem to have returned to that solid base of unity which its well-wishers hope for.

This is, however, not expected to affect the party’s chances at the presidential election in the state, as, if anything, Tinubu may well become the unifying force for even bickering members.

Neither NNPP nor LP appear to have strong presidential presence in the state.

When NNPP was revived in Adamawa last year, a former deputy governor, Sa’ad Tahir, otherwise simply called MC Tahir, stood tall as the live wire, and he later became the governorship candidate. Another famous individual, Phineas Elisha, better known as PP Elisha, became the state chairman.

Both gave the NNPP a huge image in the state and they are the ones who should have been projecting the presidential candidate of the party, Rabiu Kwankwaso, but it is not happening, as both have been so quiet for several months. NNPP appears to have recorded a sudden death after its noisy rebirth in the state, especially after MC Tahir was named its governorship candidate in June last year.

He is said to be ill and battling to be fit to run for the office of governorship race on March 11. Tahir is the party’s financial backbone in the state.

Labour Party is worse off in reference to what is to be expected of the party’s presidential candidate in Adamawa State.

About the only politician of statewide reckon within the Labour Party fold in the state is its governorship candidate, Umar Mustapha, more widely called Otunba after his controversial Otunba of Ekiti title. But Otunba’s party is deeply divided in the state, with two opposing factions bearing their respective state chairmen.

As the February 25 presidential election draws closer, history of the election in Adamawa favours PDP which has won the election most times since the beginning of this democratic dispensation in 1999, more so now that its flag bearer is from the state.

VERDICT: ATIKU/PDP

KATSINA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 3,516,719

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 98,937; APC: 1,345,441

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 308,056; APC: 1,232,133

Since 2015 general elections till date, the APC has been the dominant political party in Katsina State. The PDP and other opposition parties have remained distant second. This scenario is unlikely to change when voters go to the polls in two weeks.

Results of the presidential elections showed that APC not only cleared the polls in the Northwest states, but did extremely well in Katsina – winning by a landslide.

Breakdown of the percentage scores of the CPC/ APC in the period under the review in Katsina State during the presidential polls is as follows: 2011: CPC (70.9%); 2015: APC (92.83%); and 2019: APC (98.69%).

The support base of the current APC candidate Tinubu in Katsina is principally anchored by the following: President Muhammadu Buhari, Governor Aminu Bello Masari, Senator Abu Ibrahim, traditional rulers, APC members and leadership in the state, APC governorship candidate Dr. Dikko Radda, Deputy Speaker, Katsina House of Assembly, youth support groups and majority of Katsina citizens.

With Buhari now coming out to campaign for Tinubu, Atiku’s fate is sealed in the state. The PDP candidate might not secure 25% of the votes here.

It is, however, difficult to identify the support base of other candidates, except that of Atiku which is not as profound as that of Tinubu

There is lower rating for Obi of Labour Party, Kwankwaso of NNPP and others. They are virtually non-existent in the state except for a few billboards

Again, the protracted political and legal crisis that is rocking PDP has undermined the party’s presidential and governorship campaign platforms. Ex-Governor Ibrahim Shema’s camp doesn’t see eye to eye with Senator Lado Danmarke the party’s governorship candidate. The fallout is a divided party and candidates.

The Katsina chapter of NNPP as well as its presidential candidate Kwankwaso are yet to embark on any meaningful campaigns or preparation towards the coming elections.

Labour Party is less visible than the APC and PDP, but its chairman, Ibrahim Abu Musawa, who also doubles as governorship candidate, claims it is popular in the state.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

KANO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 5,921,370

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP 215,779; APC: 1,903,999

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 391,593; APC: 1,464,768

In Kano State, only three parties and their presidential candidates attract serious discussions. They are APC, NNPP and PDP. Labour Party is the fourth in terms of visibility but it has no structures in Kano. In this regard, only three presidential candidates: Tinubu, Kwankwaso and Atiku come to mind when making analyses and permutations on who will conquer the soul of the Northwestern state in the presidential election.

In 2019 presidential election, President Muhammadu Buhari of APC scored 1,464,768 (78.9 per cent) of the total 1, 891,134 valid votes cast to beat the Peoples Democratic Party presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, who polled 391,593 (21.1 per cent).

In 2019, Kano had 5,391,581 registered voters, out of which 2,006,410 voters were accredited for the presidential election. The result, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), showed that the total votes cast were 1,964,751, out of which 73,617 votes were rejected. Valid votes were 1, 891,134.

Ahead of the presidential election next month, the Kano voter registration has hit close to 6 million. But whereas in 2019 the election was a two-horse race between Buhari and Atiku, , three major presidential candidates (Tinubu – APC; Kwankwaso – NNPP; Atiku – PDP) will fight for Kano’s votes this time. The three parties are firmly rooted in the state. Labour Party’s Obi will get some votes.

As at now, Tinubu of the APC appears to be leading the race in Kano. Only few days ago, Tinubu’s popularity and momentum were clearly shown when he with his running mate Kashim Shettima, APC governors and party chiefs across the country shut down Kano State. The mammoth crowd was during ruling the party’s flag off of its North-West presidential rally. The unprecedented crowd, drawn from across the 44 local government areas of the state for the rally, his supporters are contending, signals that victory for the former Lagos governor is assured .

Slugging it out with Tinubu in the state is Kwankwaso who is the NNPP presidential flag bearer. A son and former governor of the state, Kwankwaso is a household name in the state. However with the crowd being pulled by Tinubu across the country, some of his supporters are beginning to reason that even if the whole votes in Kano are given to Kwankwaso, he might not be able to win the presidency. Those who belong to this school of thought may decide not to ‘waste’ their votes on him. They may decide to vote for Tinubu who has a more likelihood of getting victory

Atiku’s chances of winning Kano are becoming slimmer by the day because of intra-party conflicts and litigations following parallel leadership structures which had troubled the PDP in Kano.

The crises led to factional primary elections. Recently, the court declared Mohammed Sani Abacha, son of the late Head of State, General Sani Abacha, as the duly nominated governorship candidate of the PDP in Kano. Before the judgment, Sadik Aminu Wali was the PDP’s governorship flag bearer in the state and the party was carrying out campaigns for him. The Court of Appeal just returned the ticket to Wali.

But the back and forth has demoralised many members of the party, with some of them migrating to APC. It was gathered that Atiku had asked Kano PDP and NNPP chapters to work together.

During the meeting, it was gathered that he pleaded with Kwankwaso to do a silent merger with PDP in order to deliver him in Kano. Then Kwankwaso and his party chieftains, sources said, told Atiku and PDP stakeholders in the state to also deliver his NNPP governorship candidate Abba Kabir at the poll. Kwankwaso’s demand was rejected.

Those rejecting the candidacy of Abba Kabir point to the fact that he is a son-in-law to Kwankwaso. The two political parties (NNPP and PDP) have not arrived at consensus on who should be supported for the governorship and presidency when the court sacked Wali and installed Abacha.

Meanwhile, the APC governorship candidate, Nasir Yusuf Gawuna appears to be more stable. He and his running mate, Murtala Sule Garo have been in the Ganduje administration and have penetrated the grassroots as the election builds up.

Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje has vowed to do his best to deliver Tinubu in the presidential election. He has sacrificed his senatorial ambition to retain more bigwigs in APC, thereby opening a wider door for followers and more participation. His influence as a serving governor cannot be undermined. Pundits say, besides resources, Ganduje will be using the state apparatuses to deliver the APC candidates in the state and by extension Tinubu.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

JIGAWA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,351,298

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP 142,904; APC: 885,988

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 289,895; APC: 794,738

Only three parties are popular in Jigawa State. They are APC, PDP and NNPP. The negligible presence of LP in only two billboards in Dutse City roundabout.

But by all indication the race would be more between APC and PDP. NNPP may not likely make serious impact in the poll going by its activities in the state. It is a straight fight between APC and PDP as it was in 2015 and 2019. In 2019, APC secured 794, 738 to beat PDP which had 289,895.

A major setback for PDP in Jigawa is the involvement of President Buhari in the campaign for Tinubu. His mass followers have now got a sense of direction which may prove fatal for ex-Vice President Atiku.

Many people, especially in the rural areas, are not aware of the presidential and governorship candidates of the Labour Party. As at the time of filing this report, the presidential candidate of LP Obi or his representative has not visited the state.

While the NNPP presidential candidate Kwankwaso who is an indigene of neighbouring Kano State seems to have minimal support in the state, his gubernatorial candidate, Mr. Aminu Ibrahim Ringim, is not popular at all. He has never won his poling unit during when he was in office as a Special Adviser, Commissioner and Chief of Staff.

APC and PDP are making waves because of their strengths and campaign strategies. The two parties boast of political heavyweights and kingmakers.

Some of the big politicians in APC include Governor Abubakar Badaru , Second Republic Minister and two-term Senator, Bello Maitama, a former Minority Leader in the House of Representatives , Honourable Faruk Adamu Aliyu, a former minister, Ambassador Abdulhamid Malammadori among others.

In the PDP are a former Minister and ex-Governor Sule Lamido, a former Senator and Governor, Alhaji Ibrahim Saminu Turaki, former ministers, Alhaji Sale Shehu, Dr. Nurudeen Mohammed, and Ambassador Ibrahim Musa Kazaure etc

Though the two parties have good structures, the ruling APC seems to be at advantage and would likely be victorious in the coming elections.

Apart from being the party in power, the second citizen of the state is the governorship flag bearer of APC. Most of the incumbent national and state legislative candidates have the resources to earn the confidence of voters.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

YOBE STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,485,146

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP 25,526; APC: 446,265

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 50,763; APC: 497,914

Yobe State has traditionally been a one-party state. Since the inception of democracy in 1999, the state has metamorphosed from SDP, APP, ANPP and subsequently joined the major political merger of AC, CPC and ANPP which dislodged PDP in 2015.

So, the presidential election may not bring any surprises for APC. The fortunes of other political parties in the state have continued to dwindle ahead of the February general elections with a gale of defections into the ruling party.

During the last presidential election, APC polled 497,914 votes and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) scored 50, 763 votes. As at the last election, Yobe had a register of 1,365,913 voters. Out of the number, only 559,365 voted in the election.

At the gubernatorial election, Governor Mai Mala Buni of the APC scored 444,013 to beat his opponent Alhaji Bello Iliya Damagum of the PDP who scored 95, 703 only.

As much as defections are seen to be trimming down the size of the opposition in favour of the ruling APC, pundits believe that a section of voters may be voting based on candidates instead of party loyalty.

Against this backdrop, the APC has always admonished its supporters with the Hausa phrase: Kar kui cinkafa da waake, meaning “don’t do rice and beans”. The issue of support for individual candidates instead of party will always resonate among supporters in Yobe State as some of the people are die-hard supporters of former vice president Atiku.

But APC has launched some strategies to sway some of its supporters who might be voting for a different presidential candidate. One of those is the moral persuasion with facts by putting Tinubu side by side with Atiku.

According to Sardauna: “The political structure of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has since collapsed but that of Bola Ahmed Tinubu is still waxing stronger.

“The truth is that you cannot place the records of these two politicians side by side without Tinubu coming on top. Tinubu has built people in politics, in academia, business, name it. The only thing Atiku does is to build his own businesses. The selfless disposition of Tinubu as a politician has placed him above all candidates that are running in this race.

“Tinubu as a governor did what Atiku could not do as a Vice President. Atiku could not construct a road to his village but Tinubu built a road on top of water as a governor. It is the APC government that constructed the road to Atiku’s village in Jada. The North-East did not benefit from his tenure as Vice President. It is obvious that he cannot do better than Tinubu who is tested and trusted, “Sarduna explained.

The APC State Secretary, Abubakar Bakabe said the party is primed to win the presidency in the state due to the support it has enjoyed from the administration of President Buhari.

In his views, the State Chairman of PDP in the State, Amb. Umar El-Gash believes that the presidency is for the PDP to beat.

“The issue of the Presidency is already settled. It is just like collecting an object from a little child. You don’t have to struggle. The evidence is clear that everywhere they shout Nigeria! People will say, Sai Atiku! ” This is even happening at an APC rally and that shows how popular our candidate is,” he said.

El-Gash also explained that the fortunes of PDP in Yobe State are more than ever stronger and the party will spring surprises with the use of technology in the coming election.

But some of the problems which may haunt PDP border on lack of unity and the recent defection of prominent members of the party to APC.

The defection of Sen. Mohammed Hassan, who is now appointed as the Director-General of the State APC Presidential Council, has further affected PDP’s chances in Zone B, which used to be its stronghold. The defection of a former state chairman, senatorial candidate and gubernatorial aspirant Abba Gana Tata to APC is also a blow that the party is yet to recover from.

At a recent meeting in Damaturu during the inauguration of the State Presidential Campaign Council of the Party, the Leader of the party in the State Adamu Maina Waziri took responsibility for all the failures of the party in the State. He called on party supporters to be united during this electioneering and wrest power for the ruling APC in the State.

According to him, the party is repositioning to take over from Governor Mai Mala Buni.

But many are keen to watch and see how the apology will translate to the success of the party in the state.

Another strength of the PDP is Zone C , which will rob APC of fortunes at the presidential election, is its gubernatorial candidate Abdullahi Sheriff who hails from the area.

His tenure as the elected chairman of a local government from 1991 to1993 was described as glorious. This has attracted much love and appeal from his people.

His emergence as the gubernatorial candidate was a surprise to many as he defeated the former state chairman of the party and senatorial candidate in 2015, Alhaji Abba Ganatata.

“Our candidate has a serious grassroots connection and we are going to shock APC in Yobe at the polls. You can only underrate PDP in Yobe at your own risk. We have put our acts together and are ready for victory, In Sha Allahu,” Salihu, the State Publicity Secretary of PDP said.

Though the Yobe scenario looks like a two-horse race between APC and PDP, the NNPP and the Labour Party still have some supporters in the state.

Unlike the NNPP that has launched its campaign through its governorship candidate, Garba Umar, the Labour Party is yet to show any meaningful presence.

Just a few posters of Peter Obi can be sighted around Damaturu metropolis especially in the Christian-dominated areas of the town.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

SOKOTO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 5,921,370

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP 152,199; APC: 671,926

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 361,604; APC: 490,333

The presidential contest in Sokoto will be between the candidates of APC, LP, NNPP and PDP.

But it may be a fight-to-the-finish between the APC and PDP. In 2019, APC secured 490,333 to beat PDP which had 351,604. With a population of over four million people, going by past elections results, Sokoto State voting strength is approximately less than a million.

It is believed that this time around the voting pattern will no doubt change due to level of awareness, sentiments, negative impact of insecurity and poverty, loss of confidence in attitude of politicians , alleged poor representation and non-fulfilment of campaign promises

Besides, there are indications that most Igbo residents, whose traditional choice has been PDP have pitched tent with LP’s Obi against other candidates. This scenario may lead to a significant departure from voting pattern in the state.

The arrowheads for the candidates in the caliphate are reaching out to the grassroots to outwit one another. Those for PDP are Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal , former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa and Yusuf Suleiman among the local politicians whose voices are reckoned with in the state’s politics. For Tambuwal, his strengths are the influence and power of incumbency; his records in the National Assembly; his political experience and alleged fraternity with the Sultanate on one hand; and alliance with ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa, who also has significantly carved a political niche for himself after eight years as the governor of the state .

On the other side, the APC has its presidential campaign driving force in the state in former Governor Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, who is believed to be a political enigma endeared to people in the caliphate for his accessibility and listening ears . He has an unmatched political record in the state for over a decade. Wamakko has over time remained a political idol for his generosity . He has been consistent in winning elections. He is supported by the Minister of Police Affairs, Muhammadu Maigari Dingyadi and its gubernatorial candidate and former deputy governor of the state, Ahmed Aliyu Sokoto and Chuso Abdullahi Datijjo.

The recent APC presidential rally addressed by Buhari and Tinubu attracted a massive crowd. Also, there continues to be speculations over the future of Deputy Governor, Manir Muhammad Dan Iya, which are a minus for PDP.

The NNPP and LP platforms seem not to have representation in the caliphate. Their arrowheads Senator Umaru Dahiru Tambuwal and Comrade Umar Aminu (gubernatorial candidates of the two parties respectively) are weak with less formidable structures.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

TARABA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,022,374

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 310,800; APC: 261,326

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 374,743; APC: 324,906

Any of the three leading candidates, Tinubu of APC), Atiku of PDP and Labour’s Obi can win Taraba, depending on their level of mobilization in the heterogeneous state.

Certain factors such as political leaning of the state, popularity of the various presidential candidates, personality of the governorship candidates, religion and ethnicity will come into play in determining who wins here.

Traditionally, Taraba has been a stronghold of the PDP. The party has has a firm grip on the state. It has consecutively won both the governorship and presidential elections since the return of democratic rule in 1999.

As a matter of fact, Taraba, known as the ‘Nature’s Gift to the Nation,’ was the only PDP state in the Northeast from 2015 to 2019 when Bauchi joined the fold. The prevailing situation this time is, however, different. As the 2023 presidential election is concerned, the state can fall to any of the political parties.

In the 2019 polls, Atiku of PDP scored 374,743 votes to emerge winner while Buhari of APC polled 324,906 votes to be second. Out of the total 1,777,105 registered voters in the state, 777,105 eligible voters in Taraba were accredited, while 741, 564 votes were cast. Total number of valid votes was 712, 877. About 28, 627 votes were rejected.

It would have been an easy ride for Atiku to consolidate his winning streak in Taraba, given the fact that the governor, Darius Ishaku is PDP. But the party in the state appears not to be happy that ex-VP from the North instead of a Southerner emerged as the party’s presidential flag bearer.

Even though the PDP governorship candidate in the state Lt. Col. Agbu Kefas (rtd), is battling to defend his ticket against Jerome Nyameh at the Supreme Court, it wouldn’t have affected the support of Atiku. But the scenario in Benue is now applying in Taraba a bit. The PDP candidates in Benue and Taraba are campaigning for themselves, not for Atiku. Although Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue, alongside Nyesom Wike and other G-5 governors have publicly rejected Atiku’s presidential candidacy, Ishaku has kept mute. His silence and perceived lack of enthusiasm is being interpreted in many ways in the state.

Obi has been harvesting a new crop of supporters from the traditional voting population in Taraba. A lot of support groups are springing up by the day. So far, he is the only candidate who has staged a rally in Taraba with an entire youthful supporters showing up.

Earlier in August 2022, the ‘Obidient Movement’ successfully conducted a march in Jalingo to the astonishment of many. Taraba, being a Christian dominated state, the factor of religion is paving the way for Obi who is trying to poach the votes of the ruling PDP in the state. This will adversely affect Atiku if Obi succeeds.

Tinubu’s success in Taraba greatly depends on the success of Senator Emmanuel Bwacha who is the APC candidate in the state. Bwacha had defected lately from the PDP to clinch the gubernatorial ticket of APC against all odds. This led to a large number of APC supporters moving to NNPP with Professor Sani Yahaya who is the governorship candidate. Also, one of the governorship aspirants, David Sabo Kente (DSK) and many of the party bigwigs are at daggers drawn with Bwacha over the May 26, 2022 APC governorship primary poll. Kente has vowed to work against the party in the state. The APC has strongholds in the Taraba Central zone and in some parts of northern Taraba. How the intra-party squabbles are resolved would determine Tinubu and APC’s chances in the state next month.

VERDICT: PDP

ZAMFARA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,485,146

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 144,833; APC: 612,202

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 125,423; APC: 438,682

Despite the backing of a former National Security Adviser, Gen. Aliyu Gusau for Atiku, there are strong indications that APC may retain its grip on Zamfara State as it did in the 2019 presidential poll. The party garnered 438,682 compared with PDP’s 125, 423. APC is in good stead because its intra-party crises have been resolved. All the major players in the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), which ruled the state for many years, have reunited and are in APC.

The heavyweights in Zamfara include ex-governors Abdulaziz Yari, who was initially at odds with the incumbent governor, Bello Matawalle, Ahmad Sani Yerima and Mahmud Shinkafi. Others are Sen. Kabiru Marafa, a former Defence Minister, Mansur Dan-Ali, ex-Minister Bashir Yuguda, and Hassan Sahabi,

The chances of APC have been buoyed by the performance of Matawalle, who in spite of security challenges has made a mark. The governor is a chief marketer of the party. In the health sector, Matawalle has performed creditably. Apart from providing 145 primary healthcare centers, the governor has engaged over 500 health workers and about 150 medical doctors. He also completed Shinkafi Referral Hospital which had been in the works since 2009.

The pillar of the PDP in the state is Gusau. He is campaigning seriously for Atiku. The opposition party is, however, just getting its act together after a reprieve for its governorship candidate, Dauda Lawal from the Court of Appeal in Sokoto. The court last week affirmed him the rightful governorship candidate of the party.

Despite Gusau’s effort, PDP’s structure is weak in the state. It is contending with intra-party stress, lack of cohesion in the State Executive Committee (SEC), suspension of some key officers, defection of its Women Leader to APC; local government chapters’ chairmen working at cross-purpose with the State Executive Committee.

The opposition is coming late into the race in Zamfara State.

A major problem in the state is insecurity. Many residents of the state have been abducted by insurgents. The abductees are in captivity. Will this affect the turnout of voters in the state? Zamfara is one of the four of the seven states in the North-West affected by banditry.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

KEBBI STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,032,041

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 100,972; APC: 567,883

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 154,282; APC: 581,552

If all hands are on deck, the odds favour APC more than the factionalised PDP in Kebbi State. The former had in 2019 presidential election dusted the latter with 581,552 to 154,282 votes.

The current situation has shown that APC may still have the upper hand because its choice of governorship candidate, Idris Nasir (Kauran Gwandu) from Gwandu Emirate, was a clincher. Nasir’s profile as National President of the Nigeria Union of Teachers (NUT) has endeared him to many people in the state. He is a popular grassroots man.

The ruling party is united and stronger with the clout of the Governor Atiku Bagudu, the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Mr. Abubakar Malami (SAN); ex-Governor Usman Dakingari, a former President of Miyyeti Allah, Kiruwa Zuru; a former Chairman of PDP in the state, Bashir Shehu and a former member of the Board of Trustees of PDP, Sani Zauro. Bagudu, described as a strategist, has also done well to the admiration of the poor, especially farmers.

But, the spirit of APC in Kebbi State is Malami, who has impacted and earned huge followership in the four emirates: Gwandu, Yauri, Argungu and Zuru. “Whether you like it or not, Malami’s influence is huge such that he cannot be ignored.

“The AGF actually conceded the governorship slot to Bagudu in 2015 on a platter of gold,” a reliable source added.

The opposition party is torn apart by the rivalry between a former Minister of the Federal capital Territory, Sen. Adamu Aliero and a former Minister of Special Duties, Mallam Kabiru Tanimu Turaki (SAN). While Aliero is on his own, Turaki is in collaboration with PDP leaders like a former Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Ishaya Bamaiyi, Gen. Bello Sarki Yaki and other bigwigs. A former Acting National Chairman of PDP, Mohammed Haliru Bello, is on the same page with the PDP governorship candidate, Gen. Aminu Bande. A former Senate Leader, Yahaya Abubakar Abdullahi, is also in his own world fighting for survival.

A source said: “PDP is in disarray in the state because Aliero wants to be in charge and other leaders are resisting his larger-than-life mien.

“The loss of senatorial tickets by Aliero and Yahaya has been humbling and a major setback for Aliero and PDP in the state. These leaders are distracted and their followers confused.

“Although all the factions may come together to rescue Atiku Abubakar but there is no direction for the members and supporters of the opposition party at present in Kebbi State.”

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

FEDERAL CAPITAL TERRITORY (FCT)

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,570,307

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 157,195; APC: 146,399

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 259,997; APC: 152,224

The election in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) is difficult to predict at this time because its political shape has changed with the emergence of Obi as the presidential candidate of Labour Party.

The PDP has always had the upper hand in terms of poll results in the FCT.

This development is due to the predominant Christian population in the Centre of Unity.

In 2019, Atiku won the election in the FCT with 259,997 votes against 152, 224 by President Buhari of APC.

In addition, the results of the last Area Council elections in the FCT showed that the six chairmanship seats were evenly shared by PDP and APC, notwithstanding the fact that FCT is the nation’s seat of power and government notwithstanding.

PDP won the chairmanship slots in Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), Kuje, Bwari Area Councils while APC took over Gwagwalada, Kwali, Abaji.

Election in FCT at any time is unique because unlike Nigeria’s 36 states, the territory has no governor but it is run by a minister who is appointed by the president of the country.

Also, unlike in the 36 states where state electoral commissions organise the council elections, the FCT council election is statutorily conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

It is a tight race despite PDP’s ambition to reenact its winning ways with the presence of chieftains like the Chief Whip of the Senate and Senator representing FCT, Philip Aduda and three of its Chairmen in AMAC, Bwari and Kuje, and two PDP House of Representatives members representing AMAC/Bwari and Abaji/Gwagwalada/Kwali/Kuje Federal Constituencies.

However, the challenge presented by the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), may upset the results of t the February 25, 2023 presidential election, thereby denying the PDP and its presidential candidate victory.

It is a two-horse race in FCT between APC’s presidential candidate, Tinubu and Atiku. The chances of Obi still appear remote. His influence is high in AMAC but low in the remaining five area councils of Gwawalada, Kuje, Bwari, Abaji and Kwali.

The Christianity factor and thick Igbo population may affect PDP’s votes in the territory.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

KOGI STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,932,654

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP 149,987; APC: 264,851

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 218,207; APC: 285,894

Kogi became an APC state in 2015 when Governor Yahaya Bello assumed control, after the supplementary election. Already, the APC candidate, the late Alhaji Abubakar Audu, was coasting home to victory when he suddenly passed on. Following his inauguration, the governor consolidated his hold on the ruling party and the state.

In 2019, Bello also defeated Musa Wada of PDP.

Buhari and Atiku competed fiercely for votes in the state in 2019. At the close of the presidential poll, APC scored 283,894 while PDP got 218,207 votes.

Both parties are visible in the Northcentral state. Between 1999 and 2003, Audu governed the state on the platform of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). He was succeeded by Ibrahim Idris of PDP, who ruled between 2003 and 2011. From 2011 to 2011, another PDP chieftain, Captain Idris Wada, ruled the state. Thus, APC and PDP have formidable structures in Kogi.

Those rooting for LP in the Confluence State are very few.

Kogi APC and PDP are simultaneously preparing for presidential and governorship elections. In the view of the chieftains, the fate of the governorship poll is tied to the presidential election.

In the last eight years, Bello has asserted himself as a leader. Controversy has dogged his steps on some occasions, but he has been very effective, both as governor and party leader.

He is expected to bow out soon after eight years. Therefore, he is working hard to install a successor. Sources said the governor, who is from Ebiraland, is pushing for a successor from Igala, the majority ethnic group likely to give the APC many votes. His deputy, Edwand Onoja, they said, may be the beneficiary.

But, Kogi West is also not relenting. The West is calculating that if it gives bloc votes to the APC, it may assist its agitation for governorship power shift.

Kogi APC has the advantage of incumbency. Members are not ready to allow power to slip away. The three senators, Smart Adeyemi (Kogi West), Isa Echocho (East) and Yakubu Oseni (Central) are chieftains of APC.

Bello and his team have embarked on aggressive mobilisation. After the presidential primary in Abuja last year, he has donated his campaign office to Tinubu. He has also been very active as a member of the APC Presidential Campaign Council.

However, APC should not be overconfident.

PDP is not at sleep. Although party elders, including General Tunde Ogbeha, General David Jemibewon and Alex Kadiri, appeared to have slowed down political activities, PDP youths are vibrant.

They include Dino Melaye and Tijani Yusuf, a member of the House of Representatives, who is aspiring to go to Senate.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

KWARA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,695,927

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 132,602; APC: 302,146

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 138,184; APC: 308,984

Ahead of next month presidential election in the country, the political temperature in Kwara State is rising. The four major parties canvassing for votes are PDP, APC, LP and NNPP.

Other parties in contention in the state with visible candidates are Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Young Progressives Party (YPP).

All the governorship candidates and other candidates at all levels have been rooting for their presidential candidates. Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, who is seeking for reelection has been canvassing for the APC presidential candidate Tinubu.

The governor’s performance in over three years in office has endeared him to many Kwarans particularly people at the lower rungs of the ladder. This has stood APC in good stead too.

The mass followership that the party’s Kwara Central senatorial candidate, Mallam Saliu Mustapha, has garnered over the years, as a result of his philanthropic gestures is also a plus for the party in the state. Mustapha is a game changer for APC

Curiously, all the other governorship candidates except, that of PDP Alhaji Shuaibu Abdullahi are from Kwara Central. The other candidates who were members of the Otoge movement in 2019, parted ways with the governor based on some seemingly irreconcilable political differences. They are Hakeem Lawal (SDP), Yakubu Gobir (YPP) and Prof Shuaib AbdulRaheem (NNPP).

Despite their defection, the supporters of these candidates have resolved to cast their votes for the APC presidential candidate in February.

In Kwara South and North senatorial districts the resolve to vote for APC presidential candidate is legendary. The performance of the current senator representing Kwara North, Umar Sadiq made the coast clearer for the party.

In Kwara South, supporters of SDP, YPP, NNDP are determined to cast their votes for APC presidential candidate. Senator Yahaya Oloriegbe, who lost his bid to return to the senate to represent Kwara Central to Mustapha said that in spite of the APC primaries charade, he remains a bonafide member of the party because of Tinubu and the interest of the party.

The PDP hitherto in the saddle before the current administration at both national and state is banking on the old goodwill of former President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki

However, many Kwarans have vowed that the Saraki dynasty would never return to political reckoning in the state. And this might have a reverberating effect on the PDP presidential candidate Atiku.

The choice of Shuaibu Yaman Abdullahi from Kwara North as the governorship candidate in the state is strategic. The district has over the years, been crying of being relegated to the back waters of politics in the state.

Kwara North where Abdullahi hails from is for and against for him. The snag against PDP in the region is the infrastructural touch by the governor.

In Kwara South, PDP may make some inroads because of its senatorial candidate, Rafiu Ibrahim, but Tinubu has an old affinity with the people of the district who are mostly businessmen in Lagos.

In Kwara Central, which is the base of Saraki it is likely going to be battle royale between APC and PDP. Incidentally, supporters of the other governorship candidates might cast their votes for Tinubu.

Little or nothing is known about Labour Party in the state. Its governorship candidate too, Basambo, is not known in the political and power calculus of the state. All that is known about him is that he is a legal practitioner.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU

EDO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,501,081

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 208,469; PDP: 286,869

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 267,842; PDP: 275,691

The ruling party in Edo State is the PDP. But, the other two parties – the APC and the Labour Party (LP) – cannot be dismissed with the wave of hand.

The three candidates -Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (PDP) and Peter Obi (LP) – are household names in the South-South state. Other presidential flagbearers are not visible in the state.

Edo is a big, heterogenous state. But, there is no linkage between ethnicity and political choice as far as the presidential poll is concerned.

Although Atiku’s running mate, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, is governor of the neighbouring state, the geographical continuity has no influence on Edo’s preparation for the exercise.

What is also striking in Edo is that people are gravitating towards candidates projected by the three parties, not because of their assessment of their plans for them or the country, but because the parties are mobilising them and steering them to embrace the direction being charted. There is no evidence to show that the manifestos of the presidential candidates are shaping political behaviour.

Neither can the anticipated poll outcome be exclusively premised on campaign crowd. The rallies organised for Tinubu, Atiku and Obi have attracted huge crowds.

Eyes are only on the three candidates. The chieftains of the three major parties have returned to the drawing board to perfect their scheming strategies ahead of February 25.

There is renewed hostility between the governor and his former godfather. Governor Godwin Obaseki wants to use the election to make a point. Although the APC-led Federal Government of Buhari has never turned the heat on him, he knows that he will be in a more comfortable position if his party controls the centre as from May 29 because the atmosphere will become conducive for succession politics in Edo.

Obaseki is in his second term and after the general election, attention will shift to governorship poll in his state.

Similarly, his predecessor and one-time benefactor, Adams Oshiomhole, is working hard so that APC can bounce back. Some of his fanatical followers are members of the House of Assembly who have been deprived enjoying the benefits of the positions they were elected into for four years. The former national chairman, apart from being a trusted ally of Tinubu, is also vying for Senate in his native Edo North District. He has fought many battles in the past. He won some, he lost some. But, next month’s election is a special challenge to him as party leader and candidate.

Obi, who has hired the LP for the poll, appears to be making waves, particularly in the metropolis. He is leaning on the strength of his Igbo kinsmen who are traders in some parts of Edo, youths who are queuing behind him in the social media and some students of tertiary institutions.

In the 2019 presidential poll, Atiku scored 275,691 votes, defeating Buhari who got 267,691 votes, with a margin of 7,849 votes.

Between then and now, many issues have been thrown up, which are likely to shape the presidential election.

In the last two years, Edo, like some other states, have not been having it rosy. The governor is not presiding over a united state. Peace has also eluded some areas due to the activities of kidnappers. The political upheaval, in-fighting in the ruling party, and attacks by the opposition over performance by the government have made the state a near-crisis zone.

As the foot soldiers of the parties intensify their campaigns for their respective presidential candidates, they are also trying to deal with the burning issues, appropriately and inappropriately.

Although Obaseki’s defection to PDP boosted its chance of reclaiming the State House of Assembly, it has also divided the party as old party chieftains, led by Chief Daniel Orbih, have consistently alleged marginalisation, exclusion, winner-takes-all attitude and loss of sense of belonging.

The cracks have become widened, and there is no ‘Mr. Fix It’ of the late Chief Tony Anenih’s stature to bring the two camps together for crisis resolution.

Thus, the two factions locked in antagonism are strengthened by their irreconcilable agenda.

Obaseki’s faction and that of Orbih, who is an ally of Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike, leader of the G-5 PDP governors that are yet to endorse Atiku, are working at cross purposes because of the hard conditions for settlement proposed by the Orbih camp and the governor’s reluctance to give concessions that may ultimately weaken his faction.

Both factions have been in and out of court, and reconciliation has been futile because powerful external forces have also shown interest in the Edo PDP crisis.

With Obaseki are Deputy Governor Phillip Shuaibu; the state chairman of the party, Senator Ordia, who is representing Edo Central District; and Speaker of the 10-man House of Assembly. According to observers, the faction’s grip on the party is weak. But Governor Obaseki is using the structure of government to campaign for Atiku. The Orbih camp, for now, is non-committal to the Atiku project. It is perhaps, waiting for further directives from the five aggrieved governors.

The Orbih’s faction is, however, elated that its candidates in the other elections are the ones recognised by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). This has boxed the governor into a position of disadvantage and anxiety. How that plays out in the proposed elections will be interesting.

If PDP, which is the ruling party, unites behind Atiku, he will do well in the state. But, judging by the escalation of hostility between Atiku and the G5, the likelihood of truce is becoming increasingly remote.

Both factions are active on the campaign field, although they are not combining strengths. The Orbih faction is campaigning for State and National Assrmbly candidates, without mention of Atiku. The perception of crisis and division is a demoralising factor for party members and supporters across the local governments and wards.

However, the base of the PDP may also be affected by the presence of Obi of the LP in the race. Many youths and Christian voters who supported Atiku in 2019 may switch to the LP candidate.

A source said a top member of Obaseki government is even lending financial help to LP. He is said to be gazing at the future. His calculation is that if Obaseki does not endorse him for governor, he can fall back to LP. The source also pointed out that some of the candidates of LP are PDP members who defected when they lost out during the primaries.

Obi is being studied as the third force in Edo. To analysts, he is likely to spring surprise in some parts of the state, particularly Benin metropolis-Oredo, Egor and Ikoba Okha.

Also, in Auchi, a melting point which hosts the polytechnic and some commercial centres, the LP candidate may get votes from youths, students and Igbo traders who have spare parts shops in the axis. When Obi stormed Auchi for a rally, the crowd of youths and traders was huge.

Coincidentally, Oshiomhole was also on campaign train in the area. The crowd was sharply divided. Some stayed with Obi; others followed the former governor.

But, a source said it is a different ball game in the hinterland, where Obi is a stranger to rural dwellers.

The former Anambra governor’s constraints, despite his seeming rising profile in some parts of Edo, include lack of formidable structure, absence of strong candidates for legislative seats and lack of synergy among his scattered Obidients.

APC is led by Oshiomhole. With him are Pastor Osagie Ize -Iyamu, APC governorship candidate in 2020; Oshiomhole’s former deputy, Dr. Pius Odubu, and the state chairman of the party, Colonel Imuse.

APC National Assembly members are also mobilising party members in their constituencies.

Unlike the PDP, the party’s rank is comparatively united. Although there is repressed friction between Oshiomhole and Ize-Iyamu, which was a fallout of the last governorship poll, it has not affected the chapter. The chieftains have been campaigning vigorously for Tinubu.

According to analysts, Edo has a history of identifying with performers, and with Tinubu’s record of performance in Lagos State, many voters in the state, particularly the perceptive ones, will vote for him. He is expected to do well.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

DELTA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 3,221,697

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 48,910; PDP: 1,211,405

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 221,292; PDP: 594,068

This is the home state of PDP vice presidential candidate, Ifeanyi Okowa. As governor, it would have been expected that the powers of incumbency and added boost of being Atiku’s running mate, would make things rosy. That has not been the case as the party if facing a fierce challenge.

Despite being hobbled by internal crisis, PDP has executed a well-planned campaign to woo voters, with a resurgent APC matching its main rival, every inch of the way.

The Delta APC is the main challenger to the ruling party’s hegemony. A major albatross facing the PDP in the forthcoming presidential election is the defections of several high profile personalities to APC and other fringe parties, leaving a severely weakened ruling party.

This has enabled APC make inroads into PDP strongholds. Within the ruling party are a large number of aggrieved persons under the pressure group, Delta Unity Group (DUG) led by Prof Patrick Mouboghare who have sworn to work against the interest of the party.

Also, there is a perception among the various ethnic groups of failure on the part of PDP to develop their regions. This has led to mass resignations from the party with the APC a major beneficiary. This has resulted in new alliances and realignments being forged which may be detrimental to the chances of the ruling party in the presidential polls.

For example, although ex-Governor James Ibori remains in the PDP, his indifferent attitude to the fortunes of the party is as clear as crystal. Infact, he has been seen fraternising with the opposition, attending opposition social events and absenting himself from PDP campaigns, even those held in Oghara, his hometown.

Delta Central Senatorial District with its huge voter population is the stomping ground of the Deputy Senate President, Ovie Omo-Agege, who hails from the district. He has won back-to-back victories against PDP stalwarts, including Hon. Evelyn Oboroh 2015 and Chief Ighoyota Amori 2019 in past elections and may repeat the feat in the presidential poll. The ruling party is no longer the force it once was on account of mass defections.

In Delta South Senatorial District comprising the Ijaws, Isokos and Itsekiris, large numbers of aggrieved former PDP stalwarts have left in droves. These defections may be the PDP’s undoing. But there has been a groundswell of support for Labour Party in Isoko land and some urban centres, but the question is can that support translate to huge votes for it in the presidential poll?

The Ijaw areas with a high voter turnout, may vote in favour of APC, because sentiments are rife among them over developmental issues. With the recent visit of the party’s presidential flagbearer Tinubu to ex-militant leader, Government Ekpemukpolo, in the creeks, the signs are ominous for the PDP. The Itsekiris, who have always felt left behind in terms of development and may choose to vote against PDP, with so many of their leaders leaving the party.

In Delta North, aside from Asaba, Oshimili South LGA and Ika North East LGA where Okowa hails, there is the perception that the PDP has failed to address the developmental challenge facing them. Of the seven local government areas, the ruling party may struggle to get results at the presidential poll, judging from the groundswell of disaffection. Some communities have on several occasions refused the ruling party’s campaign team entry.

Despite the fact that appeal for Labour Party has grown in parts of the state, especially urban centres, winning the presidential poll will be an uphill task. The NNPP, a fringe party, may not fare better in the upcoming presidential election as it lacks the structure and appeal among a large section of the populace to cause an upset victory in the presidential poll.

VERDICT: PDP

CROSS RIVER STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,766,466

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 28,368; PDP: 414,863

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 117,302; PDP: 295,737

Several political factors are likely to determine how the presidential election will turn in Cross River State. The first has to do with the fact that the presidential election is combined with the National Assembly elections. That means it is possible that one may rub off on another. For instance, a popular National Assembly candidate who has the ears of his constituents may get their support for his or her preferred presidential candidate.

The message would simply been “vote for my party” because allowing freedom of choice in one out of the two elections on the same day and time is risking a mistake by the uneducated who would not have opportunity for correction.

It is on the basis of these that pundits believe the APC candidate will win Cross River and will be followed by the Labour and PDP candidates – in that order

The argument for this is that APC being the ruling party in Cross River State will enjoy incumbency advantages in addition to the strength of their National Assembly candidates. In the northern senatorial district, the party has the incumbent governor, Ben Ayade, seeking the district’s seat against a seating senator from the opposition PDP. In addition to the governor contesting, APC also have two strong House of Representatives candidates in the district seeking to return back to the National Assembly. So, the probabilities are that the party will win the northern senatorial district election both in the presidential race and the National Assembly race.

In the Central district, a similar scenario may play out because APC has two incumbent National Assembly members seeking to return out of the three seats in the district. The strength of these two legislators plus many stakeholders of the party in the district; such as the former Senate Leader, Victor Ndoma-Egba (SAN) and Sen. John Owan-Enoh are likely to give an edge to APC.

The Southern district may be slightly different in calculations.

The National Assembly candidates of the APC are in a stiff contest that is too close to call. But the common factor which is being worked on is the need to support the presidential candidate if not for any other reason but for the fact that most of them want the victory of the APC governorship candidate whose election is for a later date.

“So to make it easier for Prince Bassey Otu subsequent election victory, we need to support his party presidential candidate”, said a rural dweller in Calabar South Local Government Area.

However, there are other schools of thought and factors that believe the Labour Party candidate will do better in Cross River State.

Pundits, however, have not ruled out the strength of the PDP in the state but it is believed that the odds are against the party because they are divided into two camps. One led by former Governor Liyel Imoke are supporting Atiku. The other is led by the party governorship candidate, Sen. Sandy Onor. This camp is in support of Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike’s fight against Atiku at the national level, so they are not campaigning for the PDP candidate in the state.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

AKWA IBOM STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,357,418

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 58,411; PDP: 953,304

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 175,429; PDP: 395,832

The presidential election in Akwa Ibom state is going to be fiercely contested between the APC, PDP and LP candidates.

Having done their campaigns in the state at various times, they have been able to gather supporters and foot soldiers who believe in their agenda for a better Nigeria, especially as it will positively affect the state.

However, not all the three presidential candidates have equal prospects of winning the oil-state because of certain factors working for or against them or the advantages each of them has over the rest.

For instance, Atiku is riding on the advantage that Akwa Ibom is a PDP state. It is expected that he will get more votes than Obi and Tinubu.

Governor Udom Emmanuel, who is chairman of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council, is relentless in mobilising support for Atiku. He has also directed all candidates of the party to include Atiku in their individual campaigns.

But feelers gathered indicate that Atiku may not even win in the state because of the sentiment among Akwa Ibom people that power should shift to the South after President Buhari completes his second term in office come May 29 this year.

In their closets members of the PDP express their readiness to jettison party loyalty and vote a candidate from the South. This means that they are faced with Tinubu and Obi as options.

A top member of the PDP said, “We will vote candidates of our party from the State House of Assembly, House of Representatives, Senate and Governor. But members of the party are not duty bound to vote Atiku as president.

“We are not against his emergence as the party’s presidential flagbearer neither do we question how he emerged but we believe in the unity of Nigeria and the fact that power should rotate between the North and South”.

On the part of Obi, he is very popular among youths, businessmen and women, students, professionals, technocrats and ordinary people on the streets.

If only popularity and street loyalty could help a candidate win election, Obi would win with a wide margin. The crowd of supporters who turned out to grace his presidential campaign in the state proves that he is loved in the state.

But despite having a massive cult following, Obi has no solid political structures in the state. The Labour Party is not on ground. Apart from stickers, campaign posters and billboards of Obi/Datti which dot the streets of Uyo, the Akwa Ibom state capital, the party is not visible.

To make matters worse, most voters in the state do not know the party’s governorship candidate. As at today, the party is not carrying out campaigns for any of the elective offices apart from campaigning for Obi.

Tinubu has the advantage of contesting on the platform of the ruling APC at the centre which might deploy federal might to ensure he wins in the state.

Again, he has the likes of former governor Godswill Akpabio, former Petroleum Minister, Chief Don Etiebet, Niger Delta Affairs Minister, Obong Umana Umana, and former deputy governor, Mr. Nsima Ekere among others are on his side. These are considered the ‘Generals’ of Akwa Ibom politics capable of swinging victory for the Asiwaju.

Tinubu during his presidential campaign in the state promised to boost employment and wealth creation through the development of the Ibom Deep Seaport and enormous oil and gas potentials in the state.

These two critical areas are very dear and germane to the economy of the state. Voters in the state would vote for Tinubu to enable him actualise these laudable projects.

However, some factors may work against Tinubu in the state. First is that the APC is not as united as it should be. The party has been enmeshed in factional crisis which worsened during the governorship nomination.

Though it was able to host a successful presidential rally for Tinubu/Shettima, the party has been wearied by many years of internal crisis to be able to make appreciable impact for Tinubu.

Again, there some pockets of discontent among members. For instance the former presidential aide, Senator Ita Enang has been expelled from the party following his insistence on challenging the emergence of Obong Akanimo Udofia as the party’s governorship candidate.

He is currently struggling in the courts to be reinstated. It is expected that he is not going to mobilize his supporters to vote for the APC candidates. There are feelers that he might even dump the party if he fails to get justice in the courts.

But on the whole, as far as Akwa Ibom state is concerned, the sentiment of voters is tended towards a Southern president. In terms of popularity and acceptability, Obi is likely to win. Tinubu also has a good chance of winning if the APC in the state is ready to sink their differences and work unitedly.

VERDICT: PDP

OGUN STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,688,305

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 308,290; PDP: 207,950

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 281,762; PDP: 194,655

Going by the support enjoyed by APC as the ruling party, the party appears ready for whatever challenge the opposition may throw its way. Almost all the political bigwigs in the state are members of the party. To start with, all former governors of the state alive today are APC chieftains. Former Governor Segun Osoba has been the leader of APC in the state since inception while immediate past governor, Ibikunle Amosun, in spite of his lingering face-off with Governor Dapo Abiodun, has never left the party since it was formed.

In February 2021, former Governor Gbenga Daniel officially defected to APC, barely two years after serving as Director-General of the Atiku Abubakar Presidential Campaign Organisation at the last presidential election. He had in March 2019 officially resigned from the party, saying he was pulling out from partisan politics. He was received into APC at his Asoludero residence, Sagamu, by Abiodun, Ondo State Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu, Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi), Kano State Governor, Abdullahi Ganduje and Niger State Governor, Abubakar Bello.

Aside the three former governors, the APC in Ogun boasts of almost all former Deputy Governors and ex-National Assembly members. Across the three senatorial districts, the party enjoys the support of the major leaders, leaving the opposition with starters and a few notable figures. Before his death last year, Buruji Kashamu, was about the only formidable politician that was not a member of the APC. Today, many of his then allies have joined the ruling party.

In Ogun West, the unusual coalition among the camps of Senator Solomon Olamilekan (Yayi), Hon. Abiodun Akinlade (Baba Adeen), and Gboyega Isiaka (GNI), according to analysts, will deliver the votes for the APC presidential candidate in February. For the first time in years, the three leading heavyweights in the district are working for the same candidate. Former minister, Senator Iyabo Anisulowo, former Deputy Governor, Alhaja Salmat Badru and former Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Hon. Suraj Adekunbi, are also in APC.

Incumbent Deputy Governor, Noimot Salako-Oyedele, Vice Director-General of the Ogun State APC Campaign Council from Ogun West, Chief Jide Ojuko, House of Representatives candidate for Ado-Odo/Ota Federal Constituency, Tunji Akinosi, Chief Kunle Salako, Chief Sikiru Adegbite, and several other prominent leaders in the district are poised to work for the success of APC’s Tinubu next February.

Ogun East is also looking good for APC as Abiodun and Daniel lead the party in the zone. While the governor is seeking re-election, Daniel is the APC candidate for the 2023 senatorial election in the distirct that will take place same day as the presidential election. Both Senator Gbenga Kaka and Lekan Mustapha are also in APC to complete the team that is sure to win the area for Tinubu ahead of any other presidential candidate, in spite of the presence of Adebutu, the PDP governorship candidate in the zone.

Immediate past Post Master General of the Federation, Asiwaju Bisi Adegbuyi, Senator Dipo Odujirin, Otunba Oluseyi Oduntan, a former Managing Director of the Honeywell Group, Olusegun Olumide-Senbanjo, Deji Ashiru popularly known as EDA, Hon. Biyi Adeleye, and many other prominent politicians have all signed up for the Tinubu presidency project and are working round the clock to deliver the zone to the APC presidential candidate.

The PDP also have a strong presence in Ogun East, especially in the Remo axis. But for the crisis between the camps of Adebutu and the late Kashamu, the party would be expected to do well in the Ijebu axis too where the late senator’s political influence still abounds.

But analysts say it will be difficult for the party to match the efforts currently being put in place by APC in the district ahead of the presidential election.

The PDP, in spite of its unending crisis, still boasts of widespread presence in the state. Though factionalised, the party has managed to retain its popularity in some parts, especially in Ogun East where both the late Kashamu and Adebutu, hail from. However, the party has lost most of its heavyweights to APC since the last general elections, largely due to the unending internal wrangling that bedeviled it since 2011. Sadly, the remnant of the party is also divided into factions.

For Kwankwaso and the NNPP, Ogun is definitely not a place where they will garner much votes. The party and its candidate are simply not in the picture as far as the presidential election is concerned in the state. It has not campaigned anywhere in the state and its offices are not visible if they even exist at all.

In Ogun State, the contest is between APC, which is the ruling party in the state, and PDP. In spite of the fact that an intra-party struggle for the leadership of the latter weakened the opposition in the state, the Sikiru Ogundele-led State Executive Committee (SEC) has managed to keep its challenge to APC alive. Thus, the two parties are expected to continue their rivalry in the presidential contest.

For the LP, its presence is largely felt in Abeokuta, the state capital and Ijebu-Ode in the East Senatorial District.

VERDICT: APC TO WIN

OSUN STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,954,800

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 383,603; PDP: 249,929

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 347,634; 337,377

Ahead of next month’s general election, APC and PDP in Osun State are gathering their arsenal to secure votes for their presidential candidates.

The two leading political parties renewed their battle barely seven months after the governorship election of July 16th, 2022 when candidate of PDP, Senator Ademola Adeleke defeated the incumbent, Adegboyega Oyetola, with 28,344 votes after he polled 403,371 votes against 375,027 votes.

Another leading political party, Labour, is joining the scramble for votes.

Parties are drawing pattern of victory for 2023 poll from the analysis of results of 2019 presidential election and 2022 Osun guber election to make projections.

In 2019, shortly after the 2018 Osun gubernatorial election when Oyetola emerged, APC floored PDP with 10,297 votes after the party got 347,674 votes against Atiku’s 337,377 votes.

Although, PDP is currently enjoining a political honeymoon in the state, they have their limitations because of the weight of APC candidate Tinubu.

The resolve of Southern governors to zone 2023 presidency to the south is a big challenge for PDP because many voters of PDP during the July 16th 2022 Osun governorship poll are likely to mobilise support for APC, while small fractions of them will support LP candidate Obi.

Also, many of the supporters who voted PDP during 2022 governorship will vote for a candidate that they are connected with in 2023. Tinubu will be the beneficiary.

The recent action by the faction of Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, of dissolving the faction named The Osun Progressives (TOP) and return to the mainstream of APC will further boost the winning strategy of the party.

The loyalists of Aregbesola who sat back during 2022 election have decided to mobilise support for candidates APC. The unity is further cemented by inclusion of the leader of the faction, former chairman of the party, Adelowo Adebiyi and ex-speaker of Osun Assembly, Najeem Salam, in the APC Presidential Campaign Committee.

Also, the glaring inaction in governance style of PDP led administration since November 27th, 2022 till date will work in favour of APC.

APC will garner massive votes in Osun Central which has the highest number of registered voters because of the influence of first interim chairman of APC, Chief Bisi Akande as Adegboyega Oyetola will record almost same vote he recorded in 2022 in Boripe Local Government Area by getting bloc votes in Aagba, Iree, Iragbiji, Ada and many more.

Similarly, Osun East Senatorial district which has second highest number of registered voters, APC will record large votes which will pave way for victory for the party because of the influence of the national secretary of the party, Senator Iyiola Omisore in Ile-Ife axis while the influence of Aregbesola will cover Ijeshaland.

Influence of the former Deputy Governor, Mrs Titilayo-Laoye Ponle; Former Minister of Health, Professor Isaac Adewole; former Minister of Police Affairs, Alhaji Jelili Adesiyan will play role of victory for the party.

Oyetola while inaugurating the Osun Tinubu/Shettima Presidential Campaign Council (PCC), in Osogbo had charged members across the state to intensify efforts towards ensuring all round victory for the Tinubu and Shettima.

While tasking the members of the party to remain resolute, united and unperturbed, Oyetola expressed delight in the firmness of the party’s structure and commitment of the leadership and members of the APC in the state, saying it is signal to the fact that the party remains the party to beat anytime and any day in Osun.

The defeat suffered by the party during the 2022 governorship election negatively affected many party loyalists. But the judgement of Osun Governorship Election Petition Tribunal which recently voided the election Adeleke has been a morale booster for the APC.

The Labour Party in the state has been weakened by the defection to PDP of the former Deputy Speaker of House of Representatives, Lasun Yusuf, who the party fielded during 2022 governorship polls. It will affect the party because he became the rallying point at a point but now he has left.

Meanwhile, the party had gone back to drawing table to restrategise for the best wining plan for Peter Obi in the coming election. They have embarked on street campaigns to youths across the major towns of the state especially communities that host tertiary institutions to canvass for votes.

VERDICT: TINUBU, APC TO WIN

OYO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 3,276,675

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 528,620; PDP: 303,376

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 365,229; PDP: 366,690

In Oyo State, the February 25 presidential election will be a straight fight between APC’s Tinubu and PDP’s Atiku. Analysts are insisting that the fact that PDP is the ruling party will have very little effect on the performance of the presidential candidates.

In the two previous presidential elections in the state, the two parties have won on one occasion each. In 2015, Buhari polled 528, 620 votes to defeat Jonathan of PDP who got 303,376 votes. The APC candidate won in 19 local government areas while his PDP counterpart took 15.

Four years later, Atiku defeated Buhari in the state. He took 18 local government areas while Buhari won in 15. Their total votes reflected a much closer contest with former garnering 366,640 to the latter’s 365,229 votes.

While the APC won the presidential election convincingly in 2015 with a wide margin as a newly-formed opposition party, the party, now in government, narrowly lost the same state to the opposition PDP in 2019. The development, to some observers, underscores the unpredictable nature of Oyo politics. And this also explains why both the ruling APC and the opposition PDP are not leaving any stone unturned in their quest for victory ahead of the presidential election.

Currently, the APC controls the three senatorial seats. In 2019, Senator Abdulfatai Buhari was elected to represent Oyo North. Teslim Folarin represents Oyo Central, while Senator Kola Balogun representing Oyo South, won on the platform of PDP. But he dumped the party and joined APC in 2021 after falling out with Governor Makinde.

The APC also has its members as representatives in nine out of the fourteen federal constituencies, leaving PDP with only five. During the 32 state constituencies’ election held on Saturday March 9, 2019, PDP won 26 seats, APC five seats and the African Democratic Party (ADP), won one seat. The results, again, underline the uncertain nature of Oyo politics. Observers say it is too early to predict how the electorate will vote on February 25the presidential election.

Oyo is a PDP state but Governor Makinde and his camp are not supporting the presidential aspiration of the party’s candidate. He is with Governor Nyesom Wike and other G5 governors in their opposition to Atiku.

But Atiku is not without support in the strategic Southwest state. Reliable party sources revealed that he appears to have most of the PDP leaders in the state on his side. Prominent chieftains, including a former Minister of State for Federal Capital Territory, Jumoke Akinjide and a former Minister of Mines and Steel Development, Wole Oyelese, have been campaigning relentlessly for him in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital.

For the PDP presidential candidate, it is not likely that he will benefit from the incumbency factor as such. With allies and appointees of the state governor unable to openly identify with him and participate in his campaigns, the face-off between Atiku and the G5 governors has definitely taken a toll on the chances of the former Vice President in Oyo State. Unless a miracle happens and Makinde renounces his opposition to him, Atiku will be walking a very tight rope in his quest to win votes in the state on February 25.

While Makinde is yet to heed Wike’ directive to announce who his supporters should vote for, there are insinuations that the governor’s people may be preparing to throw their weight behind the presidential aspiration of Tinubu, the APC candidate in what would be an intriguing political arrangement.

Tongues started wagging when Adebayo Lawal, Deputy Governor of Oyo, recently said Makinde supports Afenifere leaders in their choice of presidential candidate for the 2023 elections. He made the comment at a meeting between the leaders and Tinubu in Akure, capital of Ondo State. Lawal, who represented Makinde at the meeting, said the Oyo governor has always been in support of the decisions taken by Afenifere. “Since he (Makinde) has become a governor, he hasn’t played with issues concerning Yorubaland,” Lawal said.

Should Makinde and his people support Tinubu on or before February 25, they will further strengthen the APC candidate’s base in Oyo State. As we speak, he has numerous bigwigs across the state working for his aspiration. The APC as the biggest opposition party in the state boasts of a very wide network with structures in all the nooks and crannies. The party is fielding candidates in all the 33 state constituencies, fourteen federal constituencies and three senatorial districts of the state.

With all the candidates and their supporters working relentlessly for Tinubu, he is expected to do well across the state. For example, in Oyo zone, he enjoys the support of warhorses like Pa C.A Ajibade; Rt. Hon. Asimiyu Alarape, Hon. Akeem Adeyemi, Dr. Yunus Akintunde, Hon. Bimbo Kolade, Kazeem Kolawole Raji, Hon. Kazeem Tunde Isiaka, Hon. Seyi Adisa and Engr. Idris Adeoye. To analysts, it will not be difficult for APC to win the zone with this array of politicians.

Allies and loyalists of late former Governor Lam Adesina, are also working hard for the Tinubu project just as the entire political structures of former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala, are involved in his campaigns. The state chairman of the party, Hon. Ajiboye Omodewu, is leading members of Ajimobi Legacy Forum to support Tinubu. The APC presidential candidate is also enjoying the support of a faction of the Ladoja Political Group and the leadership of Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) in the state.

Meanwhile, Folarin assured that the people of Oyo are solidly behind Tinubu’s presidential bid and would vote massively for APC in the 2023 general election. According to him, the 95 percent votes projected for Tinubu by the APC campaign council in Oyo is realisable.

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party is popular among some youths in the state, but observers say this may not translate into much votes for him as his presence remains largely on social media. Obi has been in Oyo twice to campaign. He was in the state last November for a rally organized by his supporters at Adamasingba stadium, Ibadan.

While the LP presidential candidate is optimistic that he will do well in the election in Oyo, it remains to be seen how he will pull this off without much political presence or support base in the state less than a month to the presidential election.

The NNPP candidate Kwankwaso is barely felt in the state. Apart from his April 2022 visit to the Olubadan of Ibadanland, Oba Lekan Balogun to discuss his presidential ambition, he is yet to campaign in the state.

Should it also turn out to be true that Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Accord Party gubernatorial candidate in Oyo State, and his allies are working for the presidential aspiration of the APC candidate as being rumoured across the state, then Tinubu’s victory on February 25 will become more assured.

Fondly called Penkelemes, Adelabu joined the Accord after he narrowly lost the governorship ticket of APC to Folarin. But sources within his camp said he is still very committed to the Tinubu presidential project.

VERDICT: APC/TINUBU TO WIN

EKITI STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 987,647

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 120,331; PDP: 176,466

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 219,231; PDP: 154,032

Likely voting patterns in the Ekiti are gradually unfolding. Out of the 16 parties that fielded candidates for the presidential election, only the ruling APC and the PDP are visibly on ground.

The poll will be a straight fight between APC and PDP, going by the political dynamics, existing realities and happenings in the state. The duo have dominated the political space in the last three months and have the highest number of supporters when compared to the Labour Party, NNPP, Social Democratic Party (SDP) and 11 others whose offices are under lock and key.

Observers are predicting that the outcome of the 2023 election may not be different from the results of the June 18, 2022 governorship election in which the APC candidate, Biodun Oyebanji, won with over 100,000 votes margin.

One thing that will likely work in favour of Tinubu over his main challenger Atiku is the fact that the ex- Lagos governor is from the Southwest. Many voters from the zone see his ambition as their project. Residents, both the Muslim and Christians, hold him in high esteem and are irrevocably committed to his victory.

But, Atiku is said to be popular in Ekiti South due to the aggressive mobilisation drive of Senator Biodun Olujimi who is seeking return to the Senate. So, the ex-Vice President is expected to get votes in the district. But with Tinubu’s cult-like following in the state, PDP may face a herculean task in its attempt to split the votes.

The former Lagos governor will definitely enjoy the support of the state government. The influence of Oyebanji and APC support base could provide a huge advantage for the party’s candidate.

Among politicians, who Tinubu will bank on to deliver the state include Minister of Minister of Trade, and Investment, Niyi Adebayo, ex- governor Kayode Fayemi, Prince Dayo Adeyeye, Senator Opeyemi Bamidele, Barr. Omowumi Ogunlola, Dr Segun Agbalajobi, Senator Tony Adeniyi, former speaker, Adewale Omirin among others. Tinubu’s son in-law, Oyetunde Ojo, is from the state and this could help APC.

However, Atiku could make an inroad through the influence of the PDP leaders in the state, including Olujimi, former Deputy Governors, Prof. Kolapo Eleka, Dr. Sikiru Lawal, Senator Duro Faseyi, former acting governor, Tunji Odeyemi, former PDP National Treasurer, Wale Aribisala, Southwest PDP Publicity Secretary, Sanya Atofarati, amongst others.

Interestingly, pundits are of the view that the results of the election will be largely decided by the acceptance level of the Oyebanji-led administration by the people. The governor who is barely three months on the plum seats has wormed himself to the people’s heart following the implementation of masses-centric policies and programnes.

The seemingly intractable crisis in the Ekiti chapter of the opposition PDP has affected its fortunes. And APC is said to be waiting at the flanks to advantage of the internal wrangling.

Since the party lost power in 2018, the opposition has not known peace for a day with the ex-governor Ayodele Fayose and Senator Olujimi at daggers’ drawn.

The internal strife was compounded by the ill-fated 2022 governorship primaries of the party, when notable politicians led by Segun Oni angrily left the party with thousands of his followers to the SDP to contest the election, where he emerged first runner up.

Unarguably, PDP is not in good shape to win the state for Atiku as Fayose is a staunch member of Integrity Group led by the River State Governor Wike. The group are opposed to Atiku’s candidacy.

Since his candidate, Bisi Kolawole lost in the last governorship election, where he came distant third, Fayose has not visited Ekiti to campaign for Atiku, unlike, the build up to the last governorship election, when he aggressively rallied support for PDP.

Although the two factions claim to be working for Atiku, it was gathered that the candidates for the state and National Assembly elections who got the tickets through Fayose’s helps were personally working for themselves.

The picture looks even bleaker with the recent announcement by the PDP national leadership that it had suspended several members of its Ekiti chapter associated with Fayose for anti-party activities. It also dissolved the state executive committee.

The massive defection of SDP members who left the party after the primary that produced PDP governorship candidate Kolawole in 2022 poll is also a disadvantage to Atiku.

But, aggrieved APC members under the aegis of Southwest Agenda for Asiwaju who supported Oni governorship bids had retraced their steps and back to the APC. This were made possible as result of the humble and unifying disposition of Oyebanji in making the party more united for a straightforward victory for Tinubu at the polls.

Watchers of politics in the state opine that Tinubu is likely to win Ekiti based on enumerated factors. But the influence of the PDP cannot be underestimated.

VERDICT: TINUBU, APC TO WIN

ONDO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,991,344

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 299,889; PDP: 251,368

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 241,769; PDP: 275,901

PDP is yet to put its house in order ahead of the polls even though the party believes it would repeat its 2019 feat, when it defeated the ruling APC in the state at the presidential election. At its recent presidential rally, former Governor Olusegun Mimiko and some party leaders loyal to the G-5 governors and the Integrity Group were absent.

Mimiko and his supporters have been silent on PDP campaign activities in the state. Some leaders are of the opinion that, perhaps, they are waiting on Wike’s directive on whose presidential candidate to support.

Some candidates of the PDP have also expressed their grievances over the lack of funding for campaign activities. They have decided to carry on with their campaign without working for their presidential candidate. Those who spoke on condition of anonymity said the focus of some leaders of the Ondo PDP was the 2024 governorship election and not about next month’s general elections.

Just as in the 2020 governorship election, the Ondo APC is going into next month general elections a united family. All stakeholders are on the same page on winning the polls. It is only in APC that several support groups have sprung up working for the victory of Tinubu.

Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu whose ill-health raised fears among party faithful has assured that he would lead the campaign activities. The leadership has been able to pacify aggrieved aspirants to withdraw cases in courts over the outcome of the primary.

What has caused worry and panic among some members of the party is the refusal of some leaders and support groups to canvass votes for other candidates of the party except for Tinubu. Many of the support groups have been silent on candidates of the party across the state.

Speaking on why he will not support APC candidates from his senatorial district, a former lawmaker who asked his name not to be printed said the primary was skewed in their favour. The former lawmaker said his target was for Tinubu to win the presidency.

The chances of LP in winning the presidential election in Ondo State are very slim. This is because it has only one candiate for both national and state assembly elections. At the party’s rally held at the Akure Town Hall, Obi did not canvass vote for the party’s candidate for Ondo North senatorial district.

VERDICT: TINUBU, APC TO WIN

LAGOS STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 7,060,195

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 792,460; PDP: 632,327

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 580,825; PDP: 448,015

Lagos is the base of the APC candidate Tinubu. The former governor is widely viewed as the architect of modern Lagos. Apart from raising a generation of leaders who have become fanatical loyalists, he has also sealed a bond with stakeholders, including the traditional institution, business class, Christian and Muslim communities, youths and women groups.

However, the main opposition party, the PDP on which platform former Vice President Atiku is running, is also visible in Lagos. Although it has been locked in supremacy battle with the progressive bloc which has held forte in the state, PDP, in the last 23 years, has failed to dislodge the Alliance for Democracy (AD), Action Congress (AC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and APC from power.

In 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019 ģovernorship polls, PDP made frantic attempts, but without success.

The third party, the Labour Party (LP), which former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi has borrowed as a platform, has no footing in Lagos, within the context of structure, party membership, machinery and public sympathy.

But, it is evident, judging by their social media activities, that many Lagos residents of Southeast and South-South origins, are gravitating towards Obi, and not necessarily LP, in some local councils where they are likely to deploy their numerical strength on poll day.

Although the NNPP is not popular in Lagos, its candidate Kwankwaso, a former governor of Kano State, is a well-known politician in the country. He has supporters in some market areas (Sabo) where few Northerners, who are his main target, ply their legitimate trade.

There is no state or ethnic group that is not represented in Lagos, which has consistently extended accommodation to all, irrespective of race and religion. Apart from indigenous Lagosians, migrant residents have roles to play during the election. Although many Northerners, Southeasterners and South-South people are many in Lagos, they are dwarfed by the number of migrant Yoruba from six Southwest states of Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, and Ekiti, who are emotionally attached to Lagos as a core Yoruba territory, and who may be willing and prepared to swing the pendulum of victory towards Tinubu’s direction in the spirit of regional solidarity.

Lagos, like other Southwest states, subscribe to zoning or rotation of the Presidency. It is a key factor in national unity, which has also engendered a sense of participation and fostered a feeling of belonging.

After the Asaba meeting of Southern Governors, the next meeting, which was a follow up, was held in Lagos State. During the meeting, the governors, irrespective of the political leanings, called for zoning. Their agitation reflected the mood in the three Southern geo-political regions of Southwest, Southeast and South-South. The perceived notion of zoning is most likely to shape voting by these Southwest, Southeast and South-South residents in Lagos. The poll outcome may be their utter disapproval or violation of the zoning principle by the PDP.

Without dispute, APC is the largest and most formidable party in the Centre of Excellence. It has its tentacles in the nooks ad crannies of the state; across the five traditional divisions of Lagos, Ikeja, Badagry, Epe and Ikorodu; the three senatorial districts of Lagos Central, Lagos East and Lagos West; the pre-existing 20 local governments and 37 Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs).

As government in power for 24 years, Lagos APC has produced many functionaries who have had political career progression from grassroots to appointees at state and federal levels.

Today, all the members of the State Executive Council, led by Sanwo-Olu, belong to the ruling party. The commissioners, special advisers and assistants, heads of boards and parastatals, reflect the representativeness and inclusive governance in the state. Similarly, all the 40 members of the House of Assembly, led by Speaker Mudashiru Obasa, are APC members. Twenty two of the 24 House of Representatives members belong to APC.

Also, all the 57 council chairmen, vice chairmen, councillors, supervisors and other aides are APC members. These grassroots structures have linkages with the various community development associations, which also serve as channels for political mobilisation.

Despite its past electoral misfortunes, Lagos PDP has not fizzled out. It has remained visible, always firing salvos at the ruling party intermittently, and mustering efforts to pose a challenge at periodic elections.

It is a crisis-ridden chapter that is retarded by weak structures. Prominent progressive politicians who defected to the opposition party have retraced their steps to APC. They complained about lack of virile leadership, cohesion and focus.

Lagos PDP has become more weakened because it is running against the tide at a time a popular Lagosian is contesting for president on the platform of APC.

Never has Lagos PDP been in disarray. Its governorship candidate, Jide Adediran, is being deserted by party elders, who complained that he reneged on the promise to pick their anointed candidate for running mate, Vivour. These party elders have shunned the governorship campaigns.

Also recently, hundreds of those who claimed to be members of the ‘Lagos for Lagos,’ Adediran’s group, defected to the APC.

A young and successful businessman, Adediran is perceived as an inexperienced candidate running on PDP platform with another inexperienced deputy candidate, Funke Akindele, a popular actress.

A great damage has been done to the PDP’s prospect by the balkanisation of its support base in Lagos by Labour Party (LP), which is targeting its strongholds in Oshodi-Isolo, Ajeromi Ifelodun, Ojo, Amuwo-Odofin, and parts of Surulere, where Southeast indigenes, parts of Eti-Osa. A category of ‘social media youths’ are now torn between Obi and Tinubu. Also, South-South elements appear to be turning their back at PDP for similar ethnic reason.

It is becoming increasingly hard for Lagos PDP to appeal to Lagosians to vote for its presidential candidate at a time the state, which is Tinubu’s base, is energised and majority of people are rooting for the Asiwaju of Lagos.

The awful picture of party depreciation contrasts sharply with past hopes. While the divided Southeast and South-South elements, in conjuction with the Oodua Progressives Congress (OPC) and a faction of Afenifere, pan-Yoruba socio-political group, led by Chief Ayo Adebanjo, teamed up to mobilise for PDP presidential candidates -former President Goodluck and Atiku -in 2015 and 2019, they are not looking at the direction of Atiku in 2023.

Despite the rainbow coalition, Buhari of APC still won in Lagos during the two polls.

In 2015, 5.8 million people registered in Lagos. In 2019, the number of registered voters rose to 6.5 million. In that 2019 poll, total vote cast was 1,156,598. Total number of accredited voters was 1,196,490. Valid votes were 1,089,567 while 67,023 votes were rejected.

Buhari won with a margin of 132,810 votes. According to the poll results, he scored 580,825 votes, winning 15 of 20 councils. Atiku got 448,015 votes, winning five councils, including Ojo and Eti-Osa.

Less than two months to the poll, many PDP candidates are not visible. Unlike the APC which is campaigning across the state, PDP’s campaign is basically restricted to rallies driven by the governorship candidate. Although Atiku came to Lagos for campaign, his old allies who are co-founding fathers of the party shunned the rally in protest over unresolved crisis in the party.

LP is a borrowed platform adopted by Obi, whose understanding of the philosophy underlining its formation is limited. Those who adopted it for contest in the past later abandoned the platform after achieving their aims. In the Fourth Republic, LP will go down in history as a ‘used and dumped party assailed by stunted growth.

The leaders of Lagos LP are not in reckoning. Although a prominent APC member, Goke Salvador, was said to have defected to the chapter, nothing has been heard about him since he failed to secure the governorship ticket.

Lagos LP does not have any council chairman, state and federal lawmaker. The presence of the party at most wards and local governments is nil.

As an emergency platform, Lagos LP only focuses on the presidential poll, scheming to rake votes from migrant settlers from Southeast and South-South, who may have ended their allegiance to the PDP.

The party lacks candidates for many federal and state legislative positions because of the absence of structure.

However, the party is visible due to the activities of fanatical supporters, Obidients, who have also invaded the social media. Their campaigns in Lagos are not properly coordinated. The youths rooting for 62-year-old Obi do not belong to any ward or local government chapter, and only a few of them can properly articulate why they prefer him to other candidates beyond the age factor.

It is possible that on poll day, LP may not have adequate number of agents at the polling booths across the state.

But, the party is targeting votes for Obi in former PDP strongholds-Amuwo-Odofin, Ojo, Ajeromi Ifelodun, and some parts of Isolo, and Eti-Osa.

VERDICT: TINUBU, APC TO WIN

ENUGU STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,112,793

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 14,157; PDP: 553,003

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 54,423; PDP: 355,553

The three leading presidential candidates are Obi of LP, Tinubu of APC and Atiku PDP.

Enugu’s votes in the past five election circles have been majorly dedicated to PDP, which has enjoyed unrivalled acceptability among the populace. Before now, the presidential contest had always been between two leading political parties.

However, with the emergence of Obi creating a third option, the tide is changing with the PDP now scrambling to retain its usual share of the votes from the state.

Though, there are about 1.6 million voters with PVCs in the state, voter turnout in the previous elections was below 50 per cent, except for the 2011 presidential election, when the state gave former President Goodluck Jonathan nearly 99 percent votes.

However, with the confidence the people of the state now have reposed in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), it is believed that voter turnout will improve considerably in the forthcoming election.

The former Vice President is believed to be a household name among the electorate in Enugu State. However, his albatross is that the people of the state and in deed, the Southeast, who had voted massively for him in the last election, are of the belief that he does not believe in equity, justice and fair play. This, they said, is so because when it was the time for the Southeast to produce the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku and PDP scuttled it.

For this reason, he lacks foot soldiers who would work and ensure his acceptance by the electorate who are very much familiar with his name.

It was observed that those who are working with the former vice president, are doing so secretly because of the seemingly dangerous backlash his open campaign would have on the generality of the PDP candidates in other positions.

According to an inside source in PDP, there is the belief that Atiku is being used to perpetuate the North in power after Buhari leaves office against the rotational North and South convention.

Again, his battle with the G-5 governors, including the governor of Enugu State, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, does not help matters.

Our correspondent observed that since the beginning of campaigns last year, no member of the PDP has ever mentioned his name in their numerous campaigns across the state. Worse still, one of the party’s senatorial candidates and former governor, Senator Chimaraoke Nnamani, rather than campaigning for Atiku, has been going about campaigning for the APC presidential candidate, Asiwaju Tinubu.

He was suspended recently by the PDP national leadership for his troubles.

“So, as it stands, the only way Atiku can get votes from Enugu State would be through a bandwagon appeal. You know Enugu is synonymous with PDP and by that way, those who will be voting for PDP candidates in other elections may equally vote for him. And that would be by mistake”, a chieftain of the PDP, who prefered anonymity, told The Nation.

Like Atiku, Tinubu is a household name among voters. He is expected to get between 25 to 30 percent of the votes in the Coal City State. The reason for this is because of his longtime relationship with the power brokers in the state starting from Gbazuagu Nweke Gbazuagu. All the governors that governed Enugu since 1999, are close allies of the Asiwaju’s and are currently rooting for him to be the next president. The current governor Ugwuanyi, it has been learned, equally enjoys a robust personal relationship that has spanned over the years with him.

Apart from that, the senatorial candidate of the PDP for Enugu East and former governor of the state, Nnamani, has never hidden his position on Tinubu as the presidential candidate whom he and his households will vote for on February 25. Some of his friends, including the son of the former governor of the state, Joseph Onoh, younger brother to Lady Bianca Ojukwu as well as the Speaker of the State House of Assembly.

Also, with APC parading such leaders as the former governor, Mr. Sullivan Chime; former Senate President, Senator Ken Nnamani, former chairman of the party, Dr. Ben Nwoye and other as Tinubu’s independent campaigners, in addition with a rejuvenated APC in the state led by Chief Ugochukwu Agballah, analysts believe that Tinubu is likely to get the required 25 percent votes in the election because of the Labour Party candidate Obi.

Obi is a well-known name among the entire citizens of the state, because he served as the governor of the neighbouring Anambra State for two terms and was also the vice presidential candidate to Atiku in 2019 election.

He now has cult followership that cuts across the 17 local government areas of the state.

Though, he is not being supported by some of the political class in the state, however, no politician dares campaign against him for fear of hostile reaction. In fact, the fear of the LP presidential candidate is the beginning of wisdom in the state.

With Obi, the presidential election in Enugu is likely to be in mould of that of 2011 where they gave their all to the then President Jonathan. Reasons are that one, they believe this is their turn and Obi is the best they can support.

Two, they are angry with the PDP for denying them the ticket after decades of consistent loyalty to the party.

Three, they are even angrier with the APC for years of alleged marginalisation.

Obi is therefore expected to win comfortably in Enugu while Tinubu will come second.

VERDICT: LABOUR/OBI

IMO STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,419,922

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 133,253; PDP: 559,185

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 140,463; PDP: 334,923

The three major political parties – APC, PDP and LP have adopted grassroots mobilisation for their presidential candidates.

Since 2014, control of the state has swung between APC and PDP – from the days when Rochas Okorocha was governor, to the brief reign of Emeka Ihedioha and now the tenure of Hope Uzodinma.

It is, therefore, expected that the presidential election would be another face-off between the two biggest parties which have the most develop structures due to their years of being power.

But this election season, the entrance of Obi and his LP is altering calculations in the Southeast. Whether those scenarios are confirmed come polling day remains in the realm of conjecture. At this point though the expectation is that regional sentiments would attract a lot votes to his cause.

Still, it is not clear whether it would be enough to deliver Imo to him. What is obvious is that he and PDP’s Atiku who ran on the same ticket in 2019, would be split the votes that once came from their common pool. That weakens the former VP’s cause.

APC and its candidate Tinubu are expected to much better than in the last two cycles given the advantages of incumbency.

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

ABIA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,120,808

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 13,394; PDP: 368,303

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 85,058; PDP: 219,698

Abia since 1999 till date has been one of the states that has religiously voted for PDP and that explains the huge presence of the party across the 17 local government areas in the state.

It is a known fact that, most politicians in the state as at today, including those who are in the opposition, at one point or the other in their political career were once members of PDP.

Voting patterns in previous elections show that Abia has been for the PDP, especially in presidential and National Assembly elections. This accounts to the reason most federal legislators from the state are PDP members.

It is important to say that the emergence of APC at the 2015 and 2019 general elections with the presence of political heavyweights like Orji Uzor Kalu, Sen. Nkechi Nwaogu and among others, boosted the presence of the party which accounts for the depletion of the usual PDP votes.

Another factor that may affect the chances of PDP is the current feud between chairman Iyorchia Ayu and the G5 governors led by the Rivers State Governor Wike.

While the former governor of the state, Senator Theodore Ahamefule Orji is leading the Atiku Abubakar-Ifeanyi Okowa campaign council in the Southeast, the body language of governor of the state, who is also the leader of the state, has not clearly shown his support for the PDP presidential candidate.

Abia is, however, not immune to the wave and noise the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Obi, is making in the Southeast. This has also created the impression that PDP may not have it rosy in Abia.

There are three senatorial zones in the state: Abia North, Abia Central and Abia South respectively.

A careful study of the three zones shows that APC may likely get more votes in Abia North considering the impact the APC federal lawmakers; Orji Uzor Kalu (Senate Chief Whip); Bende, Nkeiruka Onyejeocha (House of Reps Deputy Chief Whip); Umunneochi, Benjamin Okezie (House of Reps Spokesman); Bende, including former Minister of Mines; Uche Ogah and among others have made in the lives of the Abia North Senatorial District.

In Abia South, PDP is likely going to give a good account of themselves considering that it is the senatorial zone of the governor where the PDP doesn’thave much opposition. However, Ikpeazu’s preferred presidential choice will definitely determine the voting graph of the people.

In Abia Central, where the immediate past governor of the state, Orji, has under his control, may likely vote for Atiku.

However, if the people are going to vote for individuals against party sentiment/loyalty, Obi may likely have more votes in Abia than the candidates of APC and PDP as many residents believe that not only that power should come to the South, but because they believe that Obi has the intellectual and administrative skills to lead the country out of the doldrums.

VERDICT: LABOUR/OBI

EBONYI STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,597,646

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 19,518; PDP: 323,653

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 90,726; PDP: 258,573

Ebonyi State was traditionally being a PDP stronghold till recently.

In past elections the party has overwhelmingly won the presidential election.

However, all that changed in 2019 when Governor David Umahi then with the PDP allegedly made a pact with the ruling APC at the centre.

This led to the APC candidate President Muhammadu Buhari getting over 25 percent of the votes in the state even though the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar and his running mate, Peter Obi won the state convincingly.

Today the situation is different as Obi is now the candidate to beat in the state.

This is because he is from the Southeast and the people of the state love him.

Also, the glamour of having a president of Southeast extraction is working in his favour.

Even, members of PDP and APC privately campaign for him and have made it clear that they will support Obi for the presidential election while working fr their respective parties for other positions.

However, the Ebonyi APC was first to kick off campaign last year when Tinubu visited the state with a mammoth crowd attending the event showing that APC backed by Umahi will not be a pushover.

The party also kicked off its campaign and launched what it called door to door campaign but other parties who seem to be waiting for the national leadership of their parties to give them directives on how to go about the campaigns.

The APC is the only party among the three major parties in the state who are going into the election with a united front while the other two, PDP and LP, are embroiled in leadership and post primary crisis.

The party will be rounding off its local government campaign this weekend while the PDP is just stating its own

It also flagged off its door to door campaign which is want to take the message of the party’s manifesto to the rural areas

Meanwhile, the presidential candidates of PDP and LP, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi only visited Ebonyi in the last two weeks to kick start the campaign in the state

Also, the PDP is highly divided after the acrimonious primaries it had where two factions held parallel primaries.

Several courts cases have been going on arising from the primaries. At a point, INEC delisted the governorship candidate’s name and that of all the National Assembly candidates except one.

Their names were only restored last week after another court other and this many supporters fear has made it difficult for the party to properly strategise ahead of the elections.

“The party may not do well in the election due to the court cases and late starting of campaigns”, a highly places source said.

The source also expressed dismay that the presidential candidate has not done anything to resolve the crisis which has led to the balkanisation of the party in the state.

However, Mr Ali Odefa, Southeast National Vice Chairman of the party who is from the state disagrees.

The Labour Party is riding on the organic popularity of its presidential candidate in the state.

Infighting in the party has also affected its ability to stage a proper campaign. The party does not seem to be planning a local government campaign like the two other parties

Two persons are in court contesting governorship ticket, but some of its popular National Assembly are campaigning for Obi. The party is depending on the growing Obidient movement to win the state for Obi.

Nevertheless, the teeming supporters are said to be actively campaigning for him at the grassroots.

VERDICT: OBI TO WIN

RIVERS STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 3,537,862

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 1,487,075; APC: 69,238

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 473,971; APC: 150,710

The oil-rich Rivers State has 23 local government areas, 319 electoral wards and 4,442 polling units. With 3,532,990 voters, Rivers has the highest number of registered voters in the South-South.

On the 25th of February, the presidential candidates APC, Tinubu; PDP, Atiku and LP, Obi, will scramble to win the state.

Rivers has always been the stronghold of the PDP and since 1999 no presidential candidate of the party had lost any election in the state. In the last two presidential elections, the PDP won the state by wide margin. In 2015, out of the 1,565, 461 vote cast, APC got 69,238 representing 4.42 per cent votes while the PDP scored 1,487,075 representing 94.99 per cent votes.

In 2019, the APC tried to increase its momentum in the state and out of the 666,585 votes, the APC secured 150,710 (22.61%) while the PDP, whose candidate scored 473,971 votes (71.10%).

But such dominance has become a mirage ahead of this year’s presidential election following the worsening feud between the state PDP and its parent party at the national level. While the local party is strong and determined to win all state electoral offices, it had since declared that it would not work for Atiku.

State governor, Nyesom Wike, a political tactician and one-man riot squad, has insulated the Rivers PDP from the parent party and vowed to deliver another presidential candidate on February 25th instead of Atiku.

Wike, who leads the G-5, a group of five PDP governors seeking equity, justice and fairness, has all structures of the local party in his pocket and has been able to convince them to work for his preferred presidential candidate.

Obviously in Rivers, without Wike, Atiku seems to be going nowhere and the PDP may not stand a chance to win the February 25th presidential election in Rivers,

It has become an open secret that Wike has settled for the APC presidential candidate and communicated his decision to all PDP structures in Rivers. Recently, the Rivers chapter of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council, confirmed that the governor directed all his aides and all party leaders loyal to him to work for Tinubu.

Wike’s continual highlight of the injustices in the National PDP had compelled many residents to see Atiku as the enemy of Rivers. Sometimes angry Rivers youths are seen removing Atiku-Okowa campaign posters in their domains.

Some PDP leaders, who revolted against Wike such as Sir Celestine Omehia, Austine Okpara, Lee Maeba, Abiye Sekibo, Prince Uche Secondus and Chinyere Igwe, are finding it difficult to campaign for Atiku in the state. Most of them have since relocated from Rivers out of fear of the unknown. Besides, there is general consciousness in Rivers that power must shift to the South.

Though the Rivers APC is polarised between pro-Rotimi Amaechi and anti-Amaechi camps, all of them seem to be on the same page for Tinubu because of the decentralised campaign system adopted by the presidential candidate.

While the state party controlled by Amaechi leads the APC Presidential Campaign Council, the anti-Amaechi camp led by his former Chief of Staff, Tony Okocha, heads the Independent Campaign Council (ICC).

Though Senator Magnus Abe, a former leader of anti-Amaechi camp in Rivers APC defected to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and became the party’s governorship candidate, he had since adopted Tinubu as his presidential candidate. Abe in all his rallies has been mobilising support for Tinubu.

In fact, the APC presidential candidate will be the direct beneficiary of the crisis in the PDP. With Wike working for him and almost all the structures of the APC closing their ranks to campaign for him, Tinubu is heading for victory in Rivers.

For the Labour Party, it has remained a new entrant in the presidential race. In Rivers, no prominent and influential politician has identified publicly with the party. It still lacks enough structures in units, wards and local government areas required to cause serious upset for the two big parties in February presidential poll. It resonates more among the traders of Igbo extraction, who dominate the Rivers city centre.

A popular Nollywood actress, Hilda Dokubo, though not a politician, is one of the leaders of LP and she mobilises for Peter Obi in the state. The Chairperson of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Rivers State chapter, Beatrice Itubo, doubles as the governorship candidate of LP in the state. She has vowed to sway Rivers votes to Obi. But such assurances are believed not to be enough without corresponding vigorous campaigns to reach voters in grassroots.

VERDICT: TINUBU/APC

BAYELSA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 1,250,102

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 5,194; PDP: 361,209

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 118,821; PDP: 197,933

Since 1999, Bayelsa State has been the stronghold of the PDP. No presidential candidate of the party has lost election in the state of former President Goodluck Jonathan. Prior to the formation of APC, PDP occupied almost all elective positions in the state. It was taken for granted then that whoever emerged its flagbearer would win the election. Therefore, PDP had a formidable structure in Bayelsa before the birth of APC in 2014.

The APC tested its formative strength for the first time in Bayelsa during the 2015 general election. Signs ahead of that election indicated that the party would not perform well at the poll. Leaders, who embraced the broom party and campaigned for the APC Presidential Candidate, Buhari, were viewed as traitors. It became worse because Jonathan, the son of the soil, was standing for a reelection.

Some notable APC candidates for legislative positions did not campaign for Buhari for fear of attracting the wrath of their people. They adopted a different campaign strategy. They begged their people to vote for them but to support the reelection bid of Jonathan. The tribal sentiment was so strong that it reflected in the outcome of the 2019 poll.

After the election, APC and Buhari failed in the state. The party’s presidential candidate got 5,194 votes out of the 367,067 votes cast – representing only 1.42 per cent of the votes. But PDP and Jonathan coasted home to victory polling 361, 209 votes representing 98.4 per cent of the total vote cast.

But in 2019, Jonathan was no longer on the ballot. The APC had gained momentum and many politicians flocked into the party. Some PDP leaders following the loss of their kinsman, Jonathan, and the way he was treated by the PDP, defected to APC to begin their political journey afresh. The scenario changed. The ruling party at the center had built structures in all nooks and crannies of the state and hoisted its flags in the middle of all known rivers and creeks.

The state leader of the party and former Governor Timipre Sylva, galvanised a winning formula alongside other leaders such as the Prince of Odi Kingdom, Preye Aganaba, to give PDP a run for its money. Though, Buhari did not win the state, he had an impressive performance scoring 118,821 (35.38%) of 335,856 total vote cast. PDP, whose candidate was Atiku, still won the state with 197,933 (58.93%) votes.

In 2019-2020 governorship election, the Bayelsa APC became a mass movement. It was the rave of that moment as many appointees of the PDP, who served in the then administration of Governor Seriake Dickson resigned enmasse and defected to it. The party’s governorship candidate, Chief David Lyon, became a household name. APC grew in strength and dominated the political landscape.

The party for the first time defeated the PDP at the poll – winning six out of the eight local government areas of the state to produce the governor-elect. But the victory was short-lived as the Supreme Court in a controversial judgement removed the party from the ballot following a disqualification suit against Lyon’s running mate, Senator Biobarakuma Degi. The PDP Candidate, Senator Douye Diri, was inaugurated the governor

The reversal of fortunes created crisis in the APC and led to the emergence of factions, who challenged the leadership of Sylva. A former Minister of State for Agriculture, Heineken Lokpobiri, and his supporters opposed Sylva’s leadership and factionalised the party. Aganaba led another group that disagreed in principles with the style of Sylva, who later became the Minister of State for Petroleum. Sylva and David Lyon fell apart following allegations and counter allegations of his role in the judgement that ousted Lyon a day to his inauguration. Others stayed away and chose to operate outside the leadership of Sylva.

But the presidential campaign strategies adopted by the APC have harnessed the disagreements and controversies to the advantage of the party’s presidential candidate. The decentralized campaign system initiated by the party encouraging the establishment of independent structures has brought all dissenting groups on the same page for one project – soliciting votes for the party’s presidential candidate.

Sylva leads the APC Presidential Campaign Council in the state. Under his leadership are prominent politicians in the state including incumbent elective and non-elective office holders. The incumbent member of the House of Representatives for Southern Ijaw, Preye Oseke and his counterpart for Nembe-Brass Federal Constituency, Isreal Sunny-Goli, aka Adi are all involved in the presidential campaign. Senator Degi, who represents Bayelsa East, former Deputy Governor, Werinipre Seibarugu and other notable politicians from the state like Lyon are campaigning for the APC presidential candidate.

Sylva’s campaign structure also has a popular party stalwart, Chief Tiwei Oruminighe, known in Southern Ijaw as a mobiliser. Oruminighe, the pioneer Chairman of APC in the state, is the party’s Bayelsa Central Senatorial Candidate.

Aganaba, a former governorship aspirant is leading the Independent Campaign Council for Tinubu-Shettima. He has already deployed other coordinators in all the eight local government areas in Bayelsa to begin house-to-house, creek-to-creek and hamlet-to-hamlet campaigns for Tinubu-Shettima. With a massive campaign office sited at a strategic location in Yenagoa, Aganaba and his group of ICC are spreading the gospel of the APC candidate.

Besides Sylva and Aganaba, another staunch member of the APC, Chief Ebitimi Amgbare, a former governorship candidate of the defunct Action Congress is leading all the support groups of Tinubu-Shettima in Bayelsa.

In fact, the Bayelsa APC presidential campaign is boosted by the activities of a prominent ex-militant leader, Pastor Reuben Wilson. Wilson, the founder of the Initiative for Good Leadership and Accountability (IGLA) has been creating awareness for the APC candidate mobilising youths for Tinubu-Shettima ticket. Wilson had gone beyond Bayelsa to set up campaign structures in all the South-South states to mobilise support for the APC. Wilson was later named the South-South Director of the Asiwaju Group.

Therefore, the multifaceted, flexible and all-inclusive campaign method that has given all party leaders a sense of belonging including persons not happy with the Sylva’s leadership of the party is expected to yield huge dividends to the APC at the poll.

Undoubtedly, the PDP has dominated the state for a long time, producing all the administrators in the state. It has entrenched party structures in the state. The state governor, Senator Douye Diri; his predecessor, Senator Seriake Dickson, who is contesting to retain his seat at the Senate and a former Managing Director, Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Ndutimi Alaibe, are all in the campaign train of Atiku.

But Diri seems distracted by subdued internal crisis rocking the state PDP. Despite public denials, the governor and his predecessor, Dickson, one of the finest political thinkers and strategists, are having a running internal battle over some irreconcilable issues. Dickson’s preferred candidates for National and House of Assembly elections denied tickets by Diri during the PDP primaries are all in the Social Democratic Party (SDP) to contest the poll.

In fact, PDP in Bayelsa is further facing a moral burden of selling Atiku to the people of the state after eight years of Hausa-Fulani rulership of the country. Many a people still believe in the Asaba Accord, where all governors including Diri signed an agreement that the next president must come from the South.

By all indications both the PDP and the APC are squared off in a tough presidential contest especially as the APC has gained some ground ahead of the election. They are, however, challenged by the Labour Party and its candidate Obi.

The Labour Party and Obidient Movement has no doubt gained some acceptance in Bayelsa. It is coordinated by a known environmental activist, Alagoa Morris. Obi has some support especially among the youths and the Igbos living and doing business in Yenagoa. The LP candidate, however, lacks the political structures in the creeks and hinterland required to mobilise votes in Bayelsa.

VERDICT: PDP

ANAMBRA STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,656,437

2015 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 17,926; PDP: 660,762

2019 ELECTION RESULT

APC: 33,298; PDP: 524,738

Anambra State has been governed by the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) since 2006. But the state was before now a PDP stronghold.

Today, the noise by Labour Party (LP), seems to be taking the shine out of APGA because of the involvement of the former governor of the state, Mr Peter Obi, in the presidential race.

Though APGA has a presidential candidate in the person of Prof. Peter Umeadi from the same local government area with Obi (Anaocha), his presence in the race is seen as mere mockery by political analysts.

The leading parties in the contest in Anambra are LP, PDP and APC.

However, Obi holds the ace against the others, based on the fact that he is from the state, governed the state and majority of the people see him as representing Igbos in the presidential race.

For the APC candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the crowd that welcomed him penultimate week at the Dr Alex Ekwueme square in Awka tells the story of how popular he is.

It was an awesome crowd that dwarfed those of LP and PDP in the state. But you don’t measure political victory with rally crowds.

Besides, APC parades notable names in its fold, but the in-house crisis over leadership, has not allowed the party to grow.

Few persons believe they own the party, therefore, others must queue behind and wait for their turns for leadership.

Also, the PDP candidate Atiku’s footsoldiers are working non-stop to make sure they regain the lost glory in Anambra.

From all indications, state governor, Prof Chukwuma Soludo, is not in support of APGA presidential candidate, knowing full well he is not serious.

Though, he has not openly declared support for either Atiku or Tinubu, but one thing is obvious, Obi is out of the equation for the governor.

Soludo does not see Obi as a force in the presidential race, rather, he sees him as a jester, whose supporters attack anyone that says the truth concerning the February 25 election.

Anambra may not be that fertile for Obi the way things are unfolding, because opposition against him in his state is enormous too. But the sympathy the electorate have for him is equally huge.

Political observers believe that Obi stand a good chance of winning a majority of votes in the state because of his followership.

If the crowd that attended the APC rally in Awka is anything to go by, the possibility of the party getting 20-25 percent in the presidential election may not be ruled out.

For the PDP, it will also be difficult because many candidates contesting for different positions in the party have vowed to vote for Obi.

VERDICT: OBI

February 12, 2023

Peter Obi’s condemnable Alaba Market politicking

Alaba Market, Peter Obi

By PROF. YEMI OKE

*From Rumours to Manifestations*
It began like a rumour; unfound imaginative sentiments of his political rivals, but the manifestation proved his critics right. The style of ethnocentric politicking and manner of Obi’s campaign in Ibo-dominated Alaba market square during his recent Presidential campaign in Lagos has proven Peter Obi’s penchant for needlessly divisive, dangerous ethnocentric politicking which is both condemnable and undesirable at this point of our nationhood*.

Rationally, one might not be hasty to condemn or be too hard in criticising the presidential candidate of the Labour Party for his refusal to frontally and decisively condemn the activities of IPOB and other self-styled “Biafra Warlords” wreaking havoc and manifesting most heinous criminalities on the good people of South-East and elsewhere. But, it stands logic and commonsensical rationalities in the head why Peter Obi (a South-Easterner) entered Lagos, a South-West cosmopolitan and accommodating city of prosperity for all-irrespective of tribal or ethnic orientations, and opted to visit only his kinsmen and women in the Ibo-dominated Alaba market.

*The Makeba Dance*
Typical of a distasteful “makeba dance in the market square”, Peter Obi uttered words that would appear insensitive and insulting to the host Yoruba race. This is not to hype ethnicity but reality. I doubt it if a Yoruba or Fulani man or woman would display that level of rude effrontery in the South-West.

Lagos is for all. We all know that same would not apply to Fulani, Yoruba, Nupe and other ethnic traders in Onitsha, Nnewi, Aba and other markets in the South-East. As a High-Chief in Yorubaland, I wish to put on record that what Obi did is tantamount to insensitive act of counting the ‘nine-fingers’ with full consciousness of victim (A kii ti oju onika mesan ka’a!). This further reinforces and underscores the desire of Nigerians to vote a detribalised leader in the February 25, 2023 presidential election. Doing otherwise would be costly and risky for the continued existence and unity of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

*Peter Obi knew that an Oba exists in Lagos- Oba of Lagos, yet he opted to ignore him. Conventionally, the usual political and electioneering itinerary is for the visitor to first pay a courtesy visit to the ruler and ancestral owners of the land which the Oba, Obi or Emir of the town represents*.

Would Peter Obi have done same to the highly intellectual Obi of Onitsha? It is disgusting that Peter Obi preferred his Ibo kinsmen and ignored the Hausa community in Idi-Oro in Mushin. He did not visit Yaba, Surulere, Iyana-Ipaja or elsewhere to create an impression that his aspiration for Nigeria’s presidency and not tribal (Ibo) presidency. He should have known better.

*Would Tinubu, Atiku, Kwankwaso Have Done Same?*
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso visited Lagos, he did not indulge in the cossy enclaves of his ‘talakawa’ followers in Mushin and other “Sabo’ in Lagos, Abeokuta, Ibadan or elsewhere. Atiku Abubakar visited Lagos and, in his characteristic manner, he visited the Oba of Lagos and others without particularizing his visit to the Fulani elites or Hausa-Fulani communities in the markets in Mushin and other locations. Atiku went to Abeokuata and called on Alake of Egbaland, our revered king who made me “Bada-Baamofin of Egabland.

*Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, who deployed policy and other positive administrative measures to make Alaba market, Aspanda market, and igbo-dominated Ladipo spare-parts market in Mushin centers of wealth would have acted differently. As Governor, Tinubu could have closed down the Alaba, Aspanda or Ladipo spare-parts and other Ibo-dominated markets. He did not. Rather, he appointed Ibos into his cabinets and other sensitive appointments. His successors, Fasola, Ambode and Sanwo-Olu have also continued the healthy and progressive dispositions to those Ibo-dominated enclaves in Lagos State.*

Those Ibo-markets have received Lagos State attentions in terms of development and infrastructure, and are now vital grounds for prosperity and wealth by traders from South-East, who largely dominate and reap fortunes and wealth. *Bola Tinubu or Atiku or Kwankwaso would not have played very cheap, debased and condemnable ethnocentric politics like Peter Obi.*

*Asiwaju Tinubu knows there are Yorubas in Anambra, Kano, Sokoto and elsewhere. He opted to demonstrate and amplify national unity and did not proceed to Yoruba neighborhoods in those locations to dance the distasteful “makeba dance in the market square” like Peter Obi did most insensitively.*

Nigerians, “Shine Your Eyes”
Indeed, we as Nigerians mush “shine our eyes”. It would be difficult for any right-thinking, ethnic-neutral Nigerian to view Peter Obi as a detribalised Nigerian. I don’t, and millions other also don’t either.

The February 25 presidential election will send a very strong signal that we are Nigerians and we chose to live as Nigerians irrespective of our ethnic and religious differences. Developed countries like Canada, US and the UK take pride in their multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity. We should not allow any politician to use our natural ethnic settings to divide us. Our diversity is a matter of national assets.

We do not trust ethnocentric presidential aspirants. Kudos to the drafters of the portion of the Nigerian Constitution and Electoral Act that make it compulsory for candidates to score one-thirds in two-thirds of the States in Nigeria including Abuja. This makes it practically impossible for anyone to get elected on the basis of needlessly divisive and condemnable tribal sentiments and ethnocentric style of politicking.

Nigerians will decide, and we shall decide right.

*We love this country.*
*This GIANT called NIGERIA will rise, and never to fall again!*
—————
*PROF. YEMI OKE, PhD, FCArb, FCTI*
*(Bada-Baamofin of Egbaland)*
*(Lawyer, Scholar, Energy Consultant and Political Actor)*

February 12, 2023

Ramatu Aliyu, 2nd right and Tinubu at the Abuja rally

February 12, 2023

FCT minister intensifies campaign for Tinubu at Abuja rally

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Dr Ramatu Aliyu

The FCT Minister of State, Dr Ramatu Aliyu, has continued to drum up support for the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu and his running mate, Sen. Kashim Shettima.

Mr Austine Elemue, Special Assistant on Media to the minister, in a statement on Saturday, said Aliyu spoke at the APC Presidential Campaign Council mega rally in Abuja.

She called on the residents to come out in large numbers to vote for APC candidates from top to bottom.

The minister and other top party members, youths and women in attendance, explained that the mega rally was not only to drum up support for the candidates but also to emphasise the importance of the 2023 General elections.

She used the occasion to highlight Tinubu’s achievements as a former governor of Lagos State and his commitment to the development of Nigeria.

“Bola Tinubu is a visionary leader who has a proven track records of delivering results for the people. He has transformed Lagos State into a thriving hub of economic activities and has always put the needs of the people first.”

The minister assured that as the election draws near, the APC would continue to reach out to the people, giving reasons why Tinubu is the right leader to take Nigeria forward.

In his remarks, Tinubu thanked the people of the FCT for their support and urged them to continue to work together to build a stronger and more prosperous Nigeria.

Tinubu, who stressed the importance of a peaceful and transparent election, called on all Nigerians to uphold the principles of democracy and ensure that their votes are counted.

The APC rally in the FCT was a resounding success, with the party’s message of hope and change resonating with the people.

The rally was well attended by top APC party members, including former governors, ministers, senators, and members of the National Assembly.

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Day: February 12, 2023

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